PIT beat BUF 5–2. Expected goals were close to even (PIT 3.3, BUF 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Avery Hayes scored at 18:47 of the first, moving PIT’s win probability from 47% to 65%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:46 | BUF | Jason Zucker from Ryan McLeod, Bowen Byram | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:18 | PIT | Avery Hayes from Ilya Solovyov, Rutger McGroarty | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 18:47 | PIT | Avery Hayes from Anthony Mantha, Parker Wotherspoon | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 7:44 | PIT | Ben Kindel unassisted | 3–1 | 68% → 83% |
| P3 1:55 | BUF | Tage ThompsonPP from Jack Quinn, Rasmus Dahlin | 3–2 | 10% → 26% |
| P3 15:33 | PIT | Tommy Novak from Egor Chinakhov, Evgeni Malkin | 4–2 | 88% → 99% |
| P3 19:46 | PIT | Ben KindelEN from Connor Dewar | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery Hayes R | 10:09 | 2 | +1.27 | +0.15 | +1.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Kindel C | 17:27 | 2 | +0.84 | +0.07 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 15:19 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.13 | +0.62 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 23:31 | +0.25 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rutger McGroarty R | 10:01 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 17:19 | +0.16 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Solovyov D | 12:08 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 23:37 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 7:07 | +0.02 | +0.16 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 15:41 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 18:44 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 22:47 | −0.20 | +0.13 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 16:30 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Brazeau R | 11:11 | −0.34 | −0.04 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 19:29 | −0.42 | −0.03 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 13:08 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.07 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:05 | −0.80 | +0.06 | −0.69 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:59 | 1 | −1.11 | −0.03 | −0.71 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arturs Silovs G | 59:38 | +0.86 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Zucker L | 18:48 | 1 | +1.08 | −0.05 | +0.90 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Owen Power D | 25:12 | +0.31 | +0.03 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.58 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 23:18 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 26:32 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Ostlund C | 12:23 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 4:19 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:42 | −0.06 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 26:00 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 18:35 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 20:01 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Konsta Helenius C | 8:02 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 7:56 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Kozak C | 10:38 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 10:40 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Isak Rosen R | 10:36 | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 11:10 | −0.33 | −0.04 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 19:24 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 20:53 | −0.42 | −0.02 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 56:51 | +0.38 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.