VGK beat VAN 5–2. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jack Eichel scored at 5:09 of the second, moving VGK’s win probability from 53% to 73%. Kevin Lankinen allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:09 |  VGK | Jack Eichel from Rasmus Andersson, Mark Stone | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 6:34 | VGK | Cole Reinhardt from Braeden Bowman, Shea Theodore | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 7:11 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Liam Ohgren, Teddy Blueger | 1–2 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 7:39 | VGK | Ivan Barbashev from Mark Stone, Jack Eichel | 1–3 | 73% → 88% |
| P2 19:51 | VAN | Pierre-Olivier Joseph from Conor Garland, Teddy Blueger | 2–3 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 2:31 | VGK | Pavel Dorofeyev from Mitch Marner | 2–4 | 78% → 93% |
| P3 3:31 | VGK | Alexander Holtz from Keegan Kolesar, Jeremy Lauzon | 2–5 | 93% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 15:06 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.84 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson D | 21:41 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.04 | +0.83 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 23:06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Willander D | 20:11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 20:48 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aatu Räty C | 12:01 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 17:06 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Sasson C | 12:22 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki R | 12:57 | −0.14 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 12:58 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 16:31 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Linus Karlsson C | 13:46 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 18:00 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.27 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teddy Blueger C | 17:07 | 2 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| David Kampf C | 15:11 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Liam Ohgren L | 17:21 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 15:40 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 16:08 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 60:00 | −1.61 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel C | 19:07 | 1 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.13 | +0.66 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 |
| Alexander Holtz R | 14:09 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.06 | +0.62 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cole Reinhardt L | 13:13 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.05 | +0.46 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:34 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.06 | +0.38 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 17:45 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.04 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 14:37 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 16:44 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 23:52 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 13:20 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braeden Bowman R | 12:50 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kai Uchacz C | 11:49 | +0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 20:31 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:57 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 16:18 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 13:19 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:49 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 17:16 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.15 | −0.40 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 21:50 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid G | 60:00 | −0.08 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.