DAL beat STL 5–4. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jamie Benn scored at 19:37 of the third, moving DAL’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Jake Oettinger allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:29 | STL | Pavel BuchnevichPP from Jordan Kyrou, Justin Faulk | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 11:37 |  DAL | Jason Robertson from Mikko Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 18:33 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Justin Faulk, Tyler Tucker | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 1:55 | DAL | Matt DuchenePP from Thomas Harley, Jamie Benn | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 3:58 | DAL | Mavrik Bourque from Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz | 2–3 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 11:57 | DAL | Jamie Benn from Matt Duchene, Esa Lindell | 2–4 | 75% → 89% |
| P3 11:05 | STL | Jimmy Snuggerud unassisted | 3–4 | 3% → 16% |
| P3 15:31 | STL | Alexey Toropchenko from Philip Broberg, Jimmy Snuggerud | 4–4 | 11% → 49% |
| P3 19:37 | DAL | Jamie Benn from Miro Heiskanen | 4–5 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 18:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.10 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 12:47 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.02 | +0.41 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 19:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.05 | +0.57 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 20:26 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.16 | +0.51 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Matthew Kessel D | 7:49 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 13:33 | +0.01 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Logan Mailloux D | 15:09 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Tucker D | 13:13 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 13:53 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 18:59 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 22:44 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 17:39 | −0.25 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 13:23 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 13:27 | −0.26 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 16:11 | −0.28 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 17:56 | −0.29 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 20:40 | 2 | −0.33 | −0.09 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 19:07 | −0.35 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 59:37 | −0.99 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Benn L | 12:34 | 2 | 1 | +1.76 | +0.13 | +1.60 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mavrik Bourque C | 16:15 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.16 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 16:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.14 | +0.43 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jason Robertson L | 19:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Oskar Bäck C | 14:03 | +0.24 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 14:07 | +0.20 | +0.22 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 25:15 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 25:20 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.19 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Harley D | 20:27 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.29 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 15:10 | +0.07 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Justin Hryckowian C | 10:44 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 15:32 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Capobianco D | 14:17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 13:19 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 11:39 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 16:49 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.09 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 16:42 | −0.39 | +0.09 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 15:08 | 1 | −0.65 | +0.25 | −0.72 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 60:00 | −1.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.