COL beat SJS 4–2. COL also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Josh Manson scored at 12:44 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 51% to 86%. Yaroslav Askarov saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:05 | COL | Artturi Lehkonen from Valeri Nichushkin, Cale Makar | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 15:47 | COL | Artturi Lehkonen from Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin | 0–2 | 75% → 90% |
| P3 0:43 |  SJS | Timothy Liljegren from Alexander Wennberg, John Klingberg | 1–2 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 3:34 | SJS | Philipp Kurashev unassisted | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 12:44 | COL | Josh Manson from Valeri Nichushkin, Nathan MacKinnon | 2–3 | 51% → 86% |
| P3 18:43 | COL | Brock NelsonEN unassisted | 2–4 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Liljegren D | 20:08 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.30 | +0.89 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 17:09 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.03 | +0.55 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 20:12 | +0.06 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 19:13 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Desharnais D | 16:48 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 14:22 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 8:39 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 15:09 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 10:16 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Michael Misa C | 11:30 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 19:29 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Smith C | 17:41 | −0.29 | −0.16 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 17:39 | −0.35 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 14:59 | −0.38 | −0.18 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 20:12 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 9:42 | −0.48 | +0.03 | −0.50 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 20:14 | −0.61 | −0.10 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| William Eklund L | 19:26 | −0.63 | −0.33 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 59:12 | +1.69 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 17:35 | 2 | +1.01 | +0.10 | +0.90 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 18:28 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.13 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cale Makar D | 24:51 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 18:35 | +0.17 | +0.10 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 14:32 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 14:42 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Makar L | 3:25 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 14:33 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 20:44 | 3 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 13:06 | −0.15 | +0.11 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 25:56 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.27 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gavin Brindley C | 9:49 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:01 | 2 | −0.20 | +0.08 | −0.39 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jack Drury C | 17:20 | −0.23 | +0.09 | −0.34 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 13:11 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zakhar Bardakov C | 4:18 | −0.43 | −0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 16:11 | −0.43 | +0.09 | −0.28 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 21:43 | 1 | −0.72 | +0.16 | −0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.11 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 60:00 | +0.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.