NYI beat PIT 5–4 in overtime. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Bo Horvat scored at 0:52 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Stuart Skinner allowed 3.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:09 |  PIT | Anthony Mantha from Justin Brazeau | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 18:41 | NYI | Bo Horvat from Anders Lee | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P1 19:56 | NYI | Matthew SchaeferPP from Ondrej Palat, Bo Horvat | 1–2 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 3:52 | PIT | Egor Chinakhov from Tommy Novak, Erik Karlsson | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 14:09 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Sidney Crosby, Ilya Solovyov | 3–2 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 8:37 | NYI | Mathew Barzal from Adam Pelech | 3–3 | 21% → 52% |
| P3 10:40 | PIT | Justin Brazeau from Brett Kulak | 4–3 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 15:24 | NYI | Ryan Pulock from Mathew Barzal, Simon Holmstrom | 4–4 | 13% → 51% |
| OT 0:52 | NYI | Bo Horvat from Mathew Barzal, Matthew Schaefer | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egor Chinakhov R | 16:47 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.09 | +0.31 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 19:05 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.20 | +0.44 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Brazeau R | 12:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.25 | +0.06 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Anthony Mantha R | 13:31 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.23 | +0.33 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ilya Solovyov D | 14:12 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.30 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 23:03 | +0.26 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 16:27 | +0.17 | +0.27 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 20:23 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 13:15 | +0.12 | +0.17 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 11:05 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 16:41 | +0.05 | +0.20 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 20:50 | +0.04 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 22:27 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.29 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Dewar C | 13:22 | +0.02 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 18:17 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.25 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Ben Kindel C | 14:13 | −0.04 | +0.27 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 14:18 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.18 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:44 | −0.37 | −0.10 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 60:52 | −2.97 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathew Barzal C | 24:16 | 1 | 2 | +0.96 | −0.00 | +0.32 | +0.47 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Matthew Schaefer D | 27:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.22 | +0.85 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Bo Horvat C | 24:35 | 2 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.05 | +0.71 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Pulock D | 20:43 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.26 | +0.43 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 20:12 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.11 | +0.23 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 18:09 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 14:47 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.15 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 3:04 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 22:09 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 11:17 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 11:58 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 14:51 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 14:49 | −0.25 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 15:40 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 12:44 | −0.28 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 15:45 | −0.34 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 13:39 | −0.37 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 12:29 | −0.38 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 60:22 | −0.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.