DAL beat WPG 4–3 in overtime. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 4.4 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Thomas Harley scored at 2:05 of overtime, moving DAL’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:48 |  DAL | Jason RobertsonPP from Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz | 0–1 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 2:26 | WPG | Gabriel Vilardi from Cole Perfetti, Adam Lowry | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 3:58 | WPG | Cole PerfettiPP from Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele | 2–1 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 15:13 | DAL | Nils Lundkvist from Matt Duchene, Jamie Benn | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 12:17 | DAL | Mikko Rantanen from Justin Hryckowian, Miro Heiskanen | 2–3 | 51% → 85% |
| P3 18:17 | WPG | Logan StanleyPP from Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 2:05 | DAL | Thomas Harley from Matt Duchene, Miro Heiskanen | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 18:10 | 1 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.20 | +0.65 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Logan Stanley D | 15:27 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.15 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Perfetti C | 16:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.10 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Adam Lowry C | 16:01 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Iafallo L | 13:03 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 12:23 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 25:17 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Salomonsson D | 20:28 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 12:40 | −0.23 | −0.31 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 22:50 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 22:26 | −0.27 | −0.26 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 12:29 | −0.28 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 23:50 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.35 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Barron C | 11:06 | −0.48 | −0.17 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 12:16 | −0.50 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 12:04 | −0.51 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.39 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Koepke L | 8:14 | −0.64 | −0.24 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 24:36 | 2 | −0.69 | −0.32 | −0.39 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 61:09 | −0.48 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson L | 20:39 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.08 | +0.69 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Lundkvist D | 18:06 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.17 | +0.74 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Harley D | 23:52 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.25 | +0.63 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 21:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.08 | +0.75 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Alexander Petrovic D | 12:52 | +0.27 | +0.28 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 7:48 | +0.15 | +0.16 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 20:30 | +0.13 | +0.21 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Kyle Capobianco D | 12:28 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 15:11 | +0.10 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 23:26 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 19:30 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 14:00 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.20 | −0.35 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Steel C | 17:29 | +0.04 | +0.19 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Hryckowian C | 13:00 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.14 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 17:22 | 2 | −0.09 | +0.27 | −0.41 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 8:19 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 9:03 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 26:18 | 2 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 62:05 | −0.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.