WSH beat NYI 4–1. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Martin Fehérváry scored at 5:29 of the second, moving WSH’s win probability from 33% to 53%. Clay Stevenson saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:38 | NYI | Mathew Barzal unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 5:29 |  WSH | Martin Fehérváry from Tom Wilson, Nic Dowd | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 6:00 | WSH | Anthony Beauvillier from Matt Roy, Alex Ovechkin | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 8:46 | WSH | Nic Dowd from Rasmus Sandin, Ethen Frank | 1–3 | 82% → 96% |
| P3 17:35 | WSH | John CarlsonEN from Aliaksei Protas | 1–4 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathew Barzal C | 18:22 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.06 | +0.37 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 20:05 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 17:28 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 21:14 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 15:24 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 20:56 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 10:50 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 11:02 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 14:22 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 11:35 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 13:28 | −0.17 | +0.10 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 20:00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 16:09 | −0.19 | +0.11 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 21:22 | −0.19 | +0.09 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 14:33 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:56 | −0.29 | +0.23 | −0.50 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 11:34 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Schaefer D | 23:23 | −0.39 | +0.12 | −0.12 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 57:08 | −0.89 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Fehérváry D | 19:00 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.03 | +0.44 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 14:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.02 | +0.38 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 16:25 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 18:28 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.15 | +0.34 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 16:50 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.04 | −0.11 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Roy D | 19:23 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 15:21 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethen Frank R | 13:46 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 18:06 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 8:42 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 15:22 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 7:21 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| John Carlson D | 21:36 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Leonard R | 13:50 | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Sourdif C | 17:23 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.22 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 19:29 | −0.18 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 17:15 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.18 | −0.15 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 23:19 | −0.30 | −0.12 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Clay Stevenson G | 60:00 | +2.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.