BUF beat FLA 5–3. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 4.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jason Zucker scored on the power play at 5:31 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 49% to 76%. Sergei Bobrovsky allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:37 | FLA | Sandis Vilmanis from A.J. Greer, Niko Mikkola | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 5:54 | FLA | Evan Rodrigues from Sam Reinhart, Tobias Bjornfot | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 15:03 |  BUF | Tage Thompson from Peyton Krebs, Rasmus Dahlin | 1–2 | 16% → 29% |
| P1 18:26 | BUF | Peyton Krebs from Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 5:44 | BUF | Zach Benson from Ryan McLeod, Owen Power | 3–2 | 46% → 67% |
| P2 18:59 | FLA | Uvis BalinskisPP from Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe | 3–3 | 29% → 52% |
| P3 5:31 | BUF | Jason ZuckerPP from Josh Doan, Jack Quinn | 4–3 | 49% → 76% |
| P3 17:51 | BUF | Josh Doan from Peyton Krebs, Ryan McLeod | 5–3 | 92% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Krebs C | 19:27 | 1 | 2 | +0.84 | −0.05 | +0.76 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Jason Zucker L | 16:00 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.77 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Zach Benson L | 14:10 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.12 | +0.60 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 16:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.09 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tage Thompson C | 20:14 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.11 | +0.47 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 22:27 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Michael Kesselring D | 11:48 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isak Rosen R | 3:08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Metsa D | 7:30 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 8:04 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Ostlund C | 12:15 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 27:26 | −0.12 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 24:17 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 16:54 | 2 | −0.25 | +0.07 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 21:54 | 2 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Kozak C | 11:14 | −0.33 | −0.21 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 22:54 | −0.44 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 16:13 | 1 | −0.67 | +0.00 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 59:55 | +2.15 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Rodrigues C | 24:09 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.43 | +0.37 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Sandis Vilmanis L | 14:13 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.03 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Uvis Balinskis D | 24:57 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.34 | +0.40 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 24:07 | +0.23 | +0.33 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 17:04 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 20:19 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 11:01 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 12:00 | −0.03 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 15:08 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 6:14 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 5:11 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 6:58 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 23:16 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 20:15 | −0.25 | −0.21 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 10:50 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 24:41 | 2 | −0.37 | +0.42 | −0.75 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cole Schwindt C | 14:24 | −0.70 | +0.05 | −0.57 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 22:53 | 1 | −0.99 | +0.31 | −1.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 58:08 | −2.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.