STL beat FLA 5–4. Expected goals were close to even (FLA 3.0, STL 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jimmy Snuggerud scored on the power play at 19:51 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 53% to 97%. Daniil Tarasov allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:12 | FLA | A.J. Greer from Luke Kunin, Sandis Vilmanis | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:46 | STL | Jake Neighbours from Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 7:51 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Philip Broberg | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 9:22 | FLA | Sam ReinhartPP from Matthew Tkachuk, Uvis Balinskis | 2–2 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 14:27 | STL | Jonatan Berggren from Justin Faulk | 2–3 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 0:41 | STL | Oskar Sundqvist from Justin Faulk | 2–4 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 16:52 | FLA | Matthew Tkachuk from Eetu Luostarinen, Sam Bennett | 3–4 | 9% → 24% |
| P2 18:39 | FLA | Matthew TkachukPP from Sam Reinhart, Gustav Forsling | 4–4 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 19:51 | STL | Jimmy SnuggerudPP from Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou | 4–5 | 53% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 23:41 | 2 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.16 | +0.62 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| A.J. Greer L | 10:17 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.05 | +0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 13:23 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 22:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.07 | +0.26 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Niko Mikkola D | 18:57 | +0.22 | +0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Schwindt C | 9:30 | +0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 11:39 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.07 | −0.07 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Sandis Vilmanis L | 10:17 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 18:41 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 11:19 | +0.08 | +0.06 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 20:43 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 10:59 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 26:58 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 16:42 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 22:09 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 11:41 | −0.21 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 23:10 | −0.35 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 15:30 | −0.38 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 69:41 | −1.89 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Neighbours L | 17:30 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.09 | +0.42 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 17:51 | 1 | 2 | +0.47 | +0.13 | +0.31 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 14:11 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.03 | +0.13 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 23:52 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.33 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonatan Berggren R | 11:11 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.03 | +0.39 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 21:57 | 2 | +0.17 | +0.05 | −0.18 | +0.31 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 21:41 | +0.15 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 12:55 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.06 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Tyler Tucker D | 13:45 | +0.10 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 25:11 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.27 | +0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Mailloux D | 12:06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 11:52 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 9:00 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 10:31 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 11:33 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 19:53 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 16:48 | −0.43 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 13:31 | −0.53 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 60:00 | −1.33 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.