CAR beat UTA 5–4. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jordan Staal scored at 19:30 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Karel Vejmelka allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:04 | CAR | Andrei Svechnikov unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 4:10 |  UTA | Kailer Yamamoto from Jack McBain | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 8:24 | UTA | Kailer Yamamoto from Nick DeSimone, Michael Carcone | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 17:36 | CAR | Shayne GostisbeherePP from Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P2 17:55 | UTA | JJ Peterka from Barrett Hayton | 3–2 | 47% → 72% |
| P3 7:11 | UTA | Michael Carcone from Jack McBain, Kailer Yamamoto | 4–2 | 77% → 94% |
| P3 18:01 | CAR | Andrei SvechnikovPP from Shayne Gostisbehere, Nikolaj Ehlers | 4–3 | 0% → 7% |
| P3 18:33 | CAR | Shayne GostisbeherePP from Jackson Blake, Jaccob Slavin | 4–4 | 7% → 50% |
| P3 19:30 | CAR | Jordan Staal from Jordan Martinook, Jalen Chatfield | 4–5 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 11:25 | 2 | 1 | +1.27 | +0.05 | +1.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| JJ Peterka R | 15:43 | 1 | +1.08 | −0.00 | +0.88 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 12:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.02 | +0.55 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Ian Cole D | 17:57 | +0.18 | +0.25 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 11:19 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.16 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 9:59 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 14:01 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Liam O'Brien C | 12:18 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Daniil But L | 12:44 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 19:32 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 20:44 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 17:21 | 2 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 18:11 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| John Marino D | 21:42 | −0.22 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 24:29 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 19:50 | −0.33 | −0.19 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 16:10 | −0.45 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:14 | −0.49 | +0.01 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | −1.73 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 20:24 | 2 | 1 | +1.43 | −0.18 | +1.61 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 19:59 | 2 | 1 | +1.28 | +0.05 | +1.38 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jordan Staal C | 15:35 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.20 | +0.65 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 19:28 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.36 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 14:48 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 19:56 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.33 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:15 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.39 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.09 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:56 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 15:46 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Carrier L | 10:22 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 10:39 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 19:50 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 15:18 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 9:57 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 18:34 | −0.22 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 16:27 | −0.26 | −0.20 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 14:29 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 17:13 | −0.38 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 71:42 | −1.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.