WSH beat DET 4–3 in a shootout. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 2.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alex DeBrincat scored on the power play at 19:07 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 6% to 50%. John Gibson allowed 3.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:27 | WSH | Nic Dowd from Connor McMichael, Jakob Chychrun | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 9:52 |  DET | Ben Chiarot from Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 9:36 | WSH | Dylan Strome from Alex Ovechkin, Jakob Chychrun | 2–1 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 14:44 | WSH | Declan Chisholm from Jakob Chychrun, Dylan Strome | 3–1 | 86% → 98% |
| P3 18:20 | DET | Alex DeBrincatPP from Dylan Larkin, Andrew Copp | 3–2 | 0% → 6% |
| P3 19:07 | DET | Alex DeBrincatPP from Moritz Seider | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Dowd C | 17:49 | 1 | +1.47 | −0.35 | +0.87 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +1.01 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 19:35 | 1 | 1 | +1.44 | −0.11 | +0.80 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.66 |
| Declan Chisholm D | 9:22 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.02 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Leonard R | 15:05 | +0.66 | +0.00 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.79 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 21:46 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 17:21 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ethen Frank R | 8:48 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 7:48 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 9:13 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Justin Sourdif C | 17:10 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 16:17 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 21:54 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 21:39 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 16:00 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.11 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 20:04 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 28:54 | 3 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 16:18 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 28:07 | −0.50 | +0.05 | −0.39 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 65:00 | −2.12 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat R | 22:47 | 2 | 1 | +1.36 | −0.16 | +1.50 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Lucas Raymond L | 21:34 | +0.81 | +0.21 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.66 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 20:40 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.10 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 19:44 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.79 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 19:18 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 13:56 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 10:13 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 15:07 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 18:44 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 12:36 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 13:10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 33:41 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Albert Johansson D | 19:16 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elmer Soderblom L | 11:29 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 12:52 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 13:56 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 15:56 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 25:32 | 1 | −0.55 | +0.19 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 75:20 | −3.73 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.