OTT beat COL 5–2. Expected goals were close to even (COL 2.1, OTT 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Ridly Greig scored at 14:22 of the second, moving OTT’s win probability from 53% to 75%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:21 |  OTT | Nick Cousins from Artem Zub, Tim Stützle | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 14:05 |  COL | Parker Kelly from Brock Nelson, Keaton Middleton | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 14:22 | OTT | Ridly Greig from Tyler Kleven, Jordan Spence | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 2:06 | OTT | Claude Giroux from Drake Batherson, Nick Jensen | 1–3 | 78% → 93% |
| P3 3:30 | COL | Valeri Nichushkin from Jack Drury | 2–3 | 7% → 21% |
| P3 17:44 | OTT | Brady TkachukEN from Jake Sanderson | 2–4 | 92% → 100% |
| P3 18:53 | OTT | Tim StützleEN from Thomas Chabot, Artem Zub | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Kelly C | 14:04 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.01 | +0.66 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 15:59 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.04 | +0.58 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:36 | +0.19 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 21:45 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zakhar Bardakov C | 7:36 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 17:04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 11:41 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 20:55 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 16:30 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Martin Necas C | 22:37 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keaton Middleton D | 12:10 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gavin Brindley C | 12:31 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 16:51 | −0.14 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 27:22 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 22:23 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Taylor Makar L | 7:28 | −0.24 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 15:22 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 20:52 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 69:29 | −0.30 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ridly Greig C | 18:45 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.09 | +0.72 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 16:44 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.06 | +0.50 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 17:34 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.06 | +0.45 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artem Zub D | 21:55 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 24:43 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 16:08 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Spence D | 15:06 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 20:13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 13:59 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 17:04 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Xavier Bourgault R | 6:17 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 14:44 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 22:19 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 15:12 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 21:24 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 12:16 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 8:14 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 18:28 | 1 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 60:00 | −0.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.