CBJ beat PHI 5–3. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sean Monahan scored at 16:32 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 51% to 91%. Dan Vladar allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:38 |  CBJ | Charlie Coyle from Mathieu Olivier, Zach Werenski | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:03 |  PHI | Travis Konecny from Cam York, Noah Juulsen | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 19:40 | CBJ | Kirill Marchenko from Zach Werenski, Adam Fantilli | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 1:58 | CBJ | Erik Gudbranson from Cole Sillinger, Charlie Coyle | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P3 4:08 | PHI | Travis Konecny from Christian Dvorak, Jamie Drysdale | 2–3 | 6% → 21% |
| P3 15:14 | PHI | Travis Konecny from Travis Sanheim | 3–3 | 11% → 49% |
| P3 16:32 | CBJ | Sean Monahan from Damon Severson, Kent Johnson | 3–4 | 51% → 91% |
| P3 18:54 | CBJ | Mathieu OlivierEN from Cole Sillinger | 3–5 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Konecny R | 21:30 | 3 | +2.54 | +0.27 | +2.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby Brink R | 15:52 | +0.31 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 26:46 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.26 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Juulsen D | 15:18 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Seeler D | 20:11 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 9:54 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 1:32 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Grebenkin R | 10:16 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 18:08 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Pederson C | 9:18 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 15:31 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 23:36 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denver Barkey C | 14:12 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 14:50 | −0.24 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 15:41 | −0.39 | −0.04 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Cam York D | 23:53 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.12 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 21:59 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.20 | −0.44 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Zegras C | 21:20 | −0.68 | +0.27 | −0.98 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 75:52 | −1.32 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Coyle C | 18:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | −0.18 | +0.74 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.39 | −0.01 |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 17:47 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.10 | +0.58 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 17:59 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.07 | +0.73 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 18:35 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.24 | +0.90 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Denton Mateychuk D | 16:57 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 8:35 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 22:58 | 2 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Zamula D | 13:38 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 14:04 | 1 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Damon Severson D | 22:18 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 17:46 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 12:00 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 8:38 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 22:22 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 16:46 | −0.21 | +0.07 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 12:36 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fantilli C | 17:09 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.17 | −0.57 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 14:10 | 2 | −0.38 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 60:00 | +0.45 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.