MIN beat CHI 4–3 in a shootout. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jared Spurgeon scored on the power play at 17:58 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 8% to 50%. Jesper Wallstedt saved 2.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:19 | CHI | Teuvo Teravainen from Connor Bedard, Louis Crevier | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 15:14 | CHI | Ryan Donato unassisted | 2–0 | 65% → 78% |
| P2 5:54 | CHI | Ilya Mikheyev from Alex Vlasic, Jason Dickinson | 3–0 | 82% → 94% |
| P2 12:33 |  MIN | Yakov Trenin from Daemon Hunt | 3–1 | 4% → 15% |
| P3 3:57 | MIN | Joel Eriksson Ek from Marcus Johansson, Quinn Hughes | 3–2 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 17:58 | MIN | Jared SpurgeonPP from Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy | 3–3 | 8% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 21:19 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.24 | +0.68 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 20:13 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.22 | +0.65 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 11:59 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.02 | +0.88 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Alex Vlasic D | 23:06 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.03 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Dickinson C | 16:34 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.00 | |
| Louis Crevier D | 18:28 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 12:50 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Greene C | 10:38 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Artyom Levshunov D | 20:37 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Moore C | 14:54 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Landon Slaggert L | 10:30 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 17:24 | −0.23 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 18:20 | −0.25 | −0.15 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 13:11 | −0.31 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 18:45 | −0.32 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 22:37 | −0.56 | −0.18 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Frank Nazar C | 23:05 | −0.56 | +0.24 | −0.46 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.32 | ||
| Connor Bedard C | 25:30 | 1 | −1.50 | +0.10 | −1.25 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 65:00 | −1.16 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Spurgeon D | 22:41 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.24 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 13:00 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 22:55 | +0.77 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.79 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 18:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.11 | +0.51 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 |
| Quinn Hughes D | 27:49 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Jiricek D | 11:32 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 10:10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Daemon Hunt D | 11:44 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 8:28 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 15:53 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.36 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 13:07 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:35 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 31:23 | −0.19 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 24:00 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 21:48 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.44 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.16 | |
| Danila Yurov R | 13:47 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 17:28 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 16:29 | −0.35 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 74:53 | +2.39 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.