WPG beat NJD 4–3. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Gabriel Vilardi scored at 3:23 of the second, moving WPG’s win probability from 47% to 66%. Jake Allen allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:33 |  WPG | Mark Scheifele from Kyle Connor, Gabriel Vilardi | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 8:02 |  NJD | Lenni Hameenaho from Arseny Gritsyuk | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 3:23 | WPG | Gabriel Vilardi from Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 7:51 | WPG | Cole Koepke from Alex Iafallo, Morgan Barron | 3–1 | 68% → 83% |
| P2 16:42 | WPG | Nino Niederreiter from Vladislav Namestnikov, Adam Lowry | 4–1 | 88% → 97% |
| P2 19:24 | NJD | Jesper BrattPP from Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton | 4–2 | 3% → 11% |
| P3 18:14 | NJD | Nico HischierPP from Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes | 4–3 | 0% → 7% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nino Niederreiter R | 15:35 | 1 | +0.91 | −0.06 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 18:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.12 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cole Koepke L | 10:00 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.06 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 20:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.09 | +0.27 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Samberg D | 21:25 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 24:16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 16:28 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Elias Salomonsson D | 17:49 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 11:59 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 11:53 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Cole Perfetti C | 12:34 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 14:04 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 15:06 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 13:02 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Toews C | 13:03 | −0.22 | +0.07 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 23:43 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 20:35 | 2 | −0.39 | +0.07 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 15:43 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.10 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 69:26 | +0.18 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Bratt L | 20:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.02 | +0.61 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Lenni Hameenaho R | 15:46 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.08 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 21:07 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.05 | +0.64 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 13:41 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 16:33 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 21:32 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arseny Gritsyuk R | 17:41 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 18:11 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 7:27 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 7:50 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 5:28 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 15:55 | −0.14 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 15:18 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 17:35 | −0.23 | +0.10 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 23:07 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Nemec D | 18:52 | −0.32 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 17:53 | −0.52 | −0.05 | −0.47 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 25:14 | 2 | −0.61 | +0.02 | −0.62 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 69:15 | −1.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.