UTA beat FLA 4–3. UTA lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mikhail Sergachev scored at 11:05 of the third, moving UTA’s win probability from 48% to 81%. Sergei Bobrovsky allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:46 | UTA | Nick SchmaltzSH unassisted | 1–0 | 46% → 64% |
| P2 2:52 | FLA | Sandis Vilmanis unassisted | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 3:46 | UTA | Sean Durzi from Jack McBain, Michael Carcone | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 9:55 | FLA | Cole Schwindt unassisted | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 11:05 | UTA | Mikhail Sergachev from Sean Durzi | 3–2 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 19:04 | UTA | Barrett HaytonEN from Kevin Stenlund | 4–2 | 94% → 100% |
| P3 19:44 | FLA | Carter VerhaeghePP from Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand | 4–3 | 0% → 4% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 25:37 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.02 | +0.79 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 19:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.03 | +0.73 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:40 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.07 | +0.79 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jack McBain C | 16:15 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Liam O'Brien C | 9:29 | +0.03 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 12:13 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 10:45 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 20:32 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 12:16 | −0.16 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 16:37 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.24 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 20:26 | −0.22 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 16:50 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 18:30 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 8:59 | −0.26 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 15:23 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Ian Cole D | 18:06 | −0.33 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 18:33 | −0.39 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniil But L | 11:42 | −0.54 | −0.01 | −0.53 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 69:57 | +0.09 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Schwindt C | 8:57 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.16 | +0.81 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Sandis Vilmanis L | 8:41 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.09 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 19:53 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.22 | +0.44 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 18:50 | +0.24 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 19:48 | +0.15 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 23:19 | +0.12 | +0.19 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 11:03 | +0.12 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 18:04 | +0.05 | +0.17 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 13:06 | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 14:33 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 22:05 | −0.06 | +0.13 | −0.15 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 10:42 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 20:55 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 15:16 | −0.22 | +0.06 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 21:10 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 17:43 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 12:19 | −0.44 | −0.02 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 18:49 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.05 | −0.45 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 80:24 | −1.24 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.