BOS beat NSH 3–2 in overtime. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: David Pastrnak scored at 0:15 of overtime, moving BOS’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jeremy Swayman saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:16 |  BOS | Hampus Lindholm from Mason Lohrei, Fraser Minten | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 2:48 | BOS | Morgan Geekie from David Pastrnak, Jonathan Aspirot | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 19:25 |  NSH | Roman JosiPP from Ryan O'Reilly, Steven Stamkos | 1–2 | 9% → 23% |
| P3 13:17 | NSH | Nick Blankenburg from Adam Wilsby, Luke Evangelista | 2–2 | 14% → 49% |
| OT 0:15 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Charlie McAvoy, Marat Khusnutdinov | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Josi D | 29:59 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.09 | +0.75 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 12:41 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.09 | +0.89 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 3:05 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 22:19 | +0.08 | +0.17 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 16:04 | +0.05 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 16:57 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andreas Englund D | 8:50 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Wood R | 9:20 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 8:47 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 25:24 | −0.06 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 15:13 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Wilsby D | 16:14 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 16:54 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 19:29 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.12 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 15:42 | −0.33 | +0.06 | −0.57 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 16:59 | −0.38 | +0.08 | −0.46 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:46 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 23:45 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.11 | −0.55 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 72:32 | −0.17 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Geekie C | 19:10 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.21 | +0.64 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 19:13 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.24 | +0.91 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 23:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.07 | +0.16 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Andrew Peeke D | 17:34 | +0.11 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 9:44 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 14:04 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 14:31 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 21:53 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fraser Minten C | 18:53 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 16:35 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 27:14 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 11:03 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 17:24 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mason Lohrei D | 15:08 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 12:28 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 11:43 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 9:20 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 14:10 | −0.33 | −0.02 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 60:15 | +1.17 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.