EDM beat ANA 7–4. Expected goals were close to even (ANA 3.9, EDM 3.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Mattias Ekholm scored at 6:28 of the second, moving EDM’s win probability from 53% to 73%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:24 |  ANA | Mikael GranlundPP from Chris Kreider, Cutter Gauthier | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 17:14 | EDM | Zach HymanPP from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 0:55 | ANA | Alex Killorn from Ryan Poehling, Jacob Trouba | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 4:36 | EDM | Spencer Stastney from Ty Emberson, Leon Draisaitl | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 6:28 | EDM | Mattias Ekholm from Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 7:34 | EDM | Darnell Nurse unassisted | 2–4 | 73% → 88% |
| P2 8:25 | EDM | Mattias Ekholm from Matt Savoie | 2–5 | 88% → 96% |
| P2 13:41 | ANA | Mikael GranlundPP from Beckett Sennecke | 3–5 | 3% → 10% |
| P3 13:38 | ANA | Mikael GranlundPP from Beckett Sennecke, Jackson LaCombe | 4–5 | 2% → 13% |
| P3 18:12 | EDM | Connor McDavidEN from Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard | 4–6 | 93% → 100% |
| P3 19:49 | EDM | Mattias EkholmEN from Leon Draisaitl | 4–7 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Granlund C | 24:17 | 3 | +2.01 | +0.01 | +1.99 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 19:18 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.06 | +0.72 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 14:59 | +0.14 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 26:16 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeffrey Viel L | 12:47 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 5:46 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 14:56 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 10:59 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 10:34 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 15:09 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 18:45 | −0.23 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 18:53 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 11:26 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 14:24 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 17:55 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.46 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 17:18 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.36 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:49 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.12 | −0.41 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 25:31 | 2 | −0.51 | −0.02 | −0.68 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 82:43 | −0.71 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattias Ekholm D | 19:58 | 3 | +1.59 | +0.11 | +1.45 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 22:23 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.09 | +0.80 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Spencer Stastney D | 14:23 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 19:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.10 | +0.40 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Josh Samanski C | 8:59 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:15 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.14 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 22:47 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.13 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 20:09 | 4 | −0.02 | +0.16 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 11:24 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 22:33 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 13:45 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 16:09 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 15:35 | −0.22 | +0.16 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 14:52 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 9:53 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 23:36 | 1 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.16 | −0.51 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Jack Roslovic C | 11:13 | −0.64 | +0.09 | −0.52 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 10:41 | 1 | −0.75 | −0.03 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 60:00 | +0.51 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.