NYR beat BOS 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (BOS 2.9, NYR 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Matthew Robertson scored at 3:53 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:45 | NYR | Will Cuylle from Urho Vaakanainen, Noah Laba | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 12:09 |  BOS | Elias Lindholm from David Pastrnak | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 12:35 | NYR | J.T. Miller from Gabe Perreault, Mika Zibanejad | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 3:18 | BOS | Elias Lindholm from David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 8:52 | BOS | Morgan Geekie from David Pastrnak, Mason Lohrei | 3–2 | 47% → 68% |
| P3 13:43 | NYR | Will Borgen from Artemi Panarin, Alexis Lafrenière | 3–3 | 15% → 51% |
| OT 3:53 | NYR | Matthew Robertson from Jonathan Quick, Vincent Trocheck | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:43 | 2 | +1.16 | +0.15 | +1.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 19:13 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.31 | +0.52 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 24:49 | +0.17 | +0.18 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 13:07 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 11:31 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 20:36 | +0.07 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Lohrei D | 14:49 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 23:23 | 3 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.26 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fraser Minten C | 14:49 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 16:19 | −0.04 | +0.16 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 12:45 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 13:45 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 20:26 | −0.11 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Steeves C | 11:25 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 24:45 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.19 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 17:44 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 9:49 | −0.32 | +0.09 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 18:09 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 73:17 | −0.86 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Borgen D | 18:23 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.12 | +0.86 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Robertson D | 22:25 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.10 | +0.72 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 22:03 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.18 | +0.78 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Cuylle L | 15:12 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.06 | +0.47 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Laba C | 13:29 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 25:10 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.22 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 12:33 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Morrow D | 15:51 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brennan Othmann L | 10:48 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 9:31 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 19:05 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 12:32 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 27:14 | −0.21 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 21:50 | −0.30 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabe Perreault R | 16:35 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.23 | −0.43 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 26:02 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.04 | −0.68 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 22:12 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.23 | −0.33 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Rempe C | 9:52 | −0.61 | −0.04 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 73:47 | −0.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.