ANA beat CGY 4–3 in overtime. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Beckett Sennecke scored at 2:54 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Dustin Wolf allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:17 | CGY | Jonathan Huberdeau from Mikael Backlund, Matt Coronato | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 7:56 | CGY | Hunter Brzustewicz from Adam Klapka, Joel Farabee | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P2 3:22 |  ANA | Beckett Sennecke from Alex Killorn, Mikael Granlund | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 12:41 | ANA | Beckett Sennecke from Mikael Granlund, Alex Killorn | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 4:50 | CGY | Matt CoronatoPP from Matvei Gridin, Nazem Kadri | 2–3 | 53% → 79% |
| P3 13:08 | ANA | Chris Kreider from Ryan Poehling, Cutter Gauthier | 3–3 | 14% → 49% |
| OT 2:54 | ANA | Beckett Sennecke from Jackson LaCombe | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beckett Sennecke R | 20:10 | 3 | +2.19 | −0.10 | +2.32 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 15:19 | +0.33 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.39 | −0.03 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 16:10 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.10 | +0.31 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 16:31 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 17:37 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 15:05 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 24:54 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 22:13 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 10:30 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 11:21 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 14:35 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 25:15 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Washe C | 12:01 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 20:34 | −0.18 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 18:49 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Drew Helleson D | 11:28 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 18:21 | 2 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 18:18 | 2 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 62:54 | +0.10 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brzustewicz D | 13:14 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.05 | +0.92 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Coronato R | 17:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.33 | +0.49 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 15:18 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.23 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 25:04 | +0.12 | +0.24 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 12:28 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 15:25 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 23:56 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Gridin R | 13:39 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:18 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Martin Pospisil C | 13:29 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:58 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.17 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Adam Klapka R | 12:08 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 25:41 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 19:00 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 14:16 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Justin Kirkland C | 12:02 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yan Kuznetsov D | 19:07 | −0.50 | +0.03 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 16:27 | −0.51 | −0.19 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 62:54 | −2.00 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.