FLA beat CHI 5–1. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mackie Samoskevich scored at 5:20 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 48% to 76%. Spencer Knight allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 15:33 | FLA | Tobias Bjornfot from Cole Schwindt | 1–0 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 19:30 | CHI | Tyler Bertuzzi from Ilya Mikheyev, Wyatt Kaiser | 1–1 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 5:20 | FLA | Mackie Samoskevich from Gustav Forsling | 2–1 | 48% → 76% |
| P3 7:24 | FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Evan Rodrigues, Gustav Forsling | 3–1 | 78% → 94% |
| P3 18:11 | FLA | Sam ReinhartEN from Evan Rodrigues, Eetu Luostarinen | 4–1 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 19:38 | FLA | Tobias Bjornfot from Carter Verhaeghe, Anton Lundell | 5–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 12:57 | 2 | +1.67 | +0.03 | +1.65 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 10:15 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.06 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 15:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.07 | +0.64 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sandis Vilmanis L | 15:29 | +0.21 | +0.15 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 23:20 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Schwindt C | 9:36 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 15:51 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 17:00 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 15:49 | −0.02 | +0.15 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 17:15 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 20:00 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 23:44 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 21:08 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 11:00 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 16:09 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Marchand L | 14:46 | −0.24 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:44 | 2 | −0.36 | +0.07 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 19:16 | −0.38 | +0.14 | −0.48 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 60:00 | +0.75 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 18:17 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.20 | +0.24 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 11:50 | +0.14 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 18:09 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 17:27 | +0.13 | +0.08 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 18:57 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 18:43 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Greene C | 13:27 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 19:17 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Landon Slaggert L | 10:53 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 13:23 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Artyom Levshunov D | 21:47 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Moore C | 15:45 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 15:50 | −0.17 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Lardis L | 14:10 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 16:28 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Frank Nazar C | 18:07 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Connor Bedard C | 17:41 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Louis Crevier D | 18:49 | −0.40 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 68:30 | −1.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.