EDM beat WSH 6–5 in overtime. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 5.4 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Connor McDavid scored at 0:47 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Connor Ingram allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:12 | EDM | Evan Bouchard from Mattias Ekholm, Zach Hyman | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:34 | WSH | Aliaksei Protas from Rasmus Sandin, Tom Wilson | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 4:13 | EDM | Evan Bouchard from Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid | 1–2 | 52% → 72% |
| P2 6:50 | WSH | Justin Sourdif from Hendrix Lapierre, Connor McMichael | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 14:29 | WSH | Anthony Beauvillier from John Carlson, Ethen Frank | 3–2 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 4:30 | EDM | Evan Bouchard from Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl | 3–3 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 6:40 | WSH | Dylan StromePP from Jakob Chychrun, Tom Wilson | 4–3 | 49% → 77% |
| P3 8:24 | EDM | Connor McDavidPP from Evan Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 4–4 | 22% → 52% |
| P3 15:09 | WSH | Connor McMichael from John Carlson, Justin Sourdif | 5–4 | 49% → 87% |
| P3 19:28 | EDM | Zach HymanPP from Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard | 5–5 | 5% → 51% |
| OT 0:47 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Evan Bouchard, Leon Draisaitl | 5–6 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Sourdif C | 15:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.11 | +0.85 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 13:46 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.06 | +0.49 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 18:35 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.33 | +0.85 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 15:29 | +0.27 | +0.16 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 17:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.04 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Ryan Leonard R | 14:56 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 17:34 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.40 | +0.48 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| John Carlson D | 25:53 | 2 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ethen Frank R | 10:32 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.17 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 6:43 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 7:27 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 23:38 | −0.11 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 14:07 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 5:08 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Roy D | 21:27 | −0.41 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 25:34 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.24 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 19:02 | −0.53 | −0.41 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 19:31 | 2 | −0.57 | −0.40 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 60:47 | −0.08 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Bouchard D | 29:25 | 3 | 3 | +3.03 | +0.84 | +2.17 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Connor McDavid C | 28:43 | 2 | 3 | +1.45 | +0.73 | +0.36 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.02 |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 19:59 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 24:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.48 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 22:43 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.46 | −0.38 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 7:02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 11:25 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 7:48 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Isaac Howard L | 10:26 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 11:58 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 17:26 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 26:16 | 3 | −0.14 | +0.67 | −0.67 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Spencer Stastney D | 12:37 | −0.18 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 10:19 | −0.26 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 12:39 | −0.43 | −0.25 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 15:07 | −0.48 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 18:04 | −0.50 | −0.29 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 11:19 | −0.53 | −0.05 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 33:35 | −0.32 |
| Connor Ingram G | 51:44 | −1.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.