BOS beat MTL 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 2.9, BOS 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Fraser Minten scored at 13:55 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 15% to 51%. Samuel Montembeault allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:36 |  MTL | Cole Caufield from Mike Matheson, Jake Evans | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 1:45 | BOS | Viktor ArvidssonPP from Fraser Minten, Casey Mittelstadt | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 7:37 | MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovský | 2–1 | 48% → 68% |
| P2 9:46 | BOS | Morgan GeekiePP from David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 13:29 | MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson | 3–2 | 48% → 70% |
| P3 13:55 | BOS | Fraser Minten from Hampus Lindholm, Charlie McAvoy | 3–3 | 15% → 51% |
| P3 14:07 | BOS | Morgan GeekiePP from Charlie McAvoy, Pavel Zacha | 3–4 | 53% → 87% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 19:14 | 3 | +1.89 | +0.05 | +1.85 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 11:42 | +0.22 | +0.14 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 26:32 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 13:05 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 19:11 | +0.08 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 13:19 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:25 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 9:19 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 9:05 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 16:51 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kapanen C | 14:43 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 19:53 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 16:27 | −0.17 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 23:37 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 16:11 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 20:58 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 16:47 | −0.39 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 11:17 | −0.40 | +0.12 | −0.33 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 57:24 | −1.71 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Geekie C | 18:37 | 2 | +1.79 | +0.26 | +1.53 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Fraser Minten C | 12:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.03 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 27:43 | 3 | +0.33 | +0.29 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 16:51 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.01 | +0.26 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 17:05 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 13:01 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 21:56 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Steeves C | 9:25 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 13:06 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 14:54 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 19:25 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mason Lohrei D | 15:52 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 12:15 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 12:26 | −0.11 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 19:30 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 16:35 | −0.25 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 19:38 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.15 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 19:52 | 1 | −0.53 | +0.23 | −0.62 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 69:24 | −0.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.