NJD beat VAN 5–4. Expected goals were close to even (NJD 2.6, VAN 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Zeev Buium scored at 18:12 of the second, moving VAN’s win probability from 12% to 28%. Kevin Lankinen allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:41 |  NJD | Lenni Hameenaho from Simon Nemec, Cody Glass | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 2:34 | NJD | Nico HischierPP from Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton | 2–0 | 67% → 81% |
| P2 3:14 | NJD | Cody Glass from Lenni Hameenaho, Jonas Siegenthaler | 3–0 | 81% → 93% |
| P2 9:47 |  VAN | Linus Karlsson from Nils Hoglander, Marcus Pettersson | 3–1 | 5% → 16% |
| P2 11:59 | VAN | Teddy BluegerSH from Drew O'Connor | 3–2 | 14% → 30% |
| P2 15:12 | NJD | Connor BrownPP from Arseny Gritsyuk, Nico Hischier | 4–2 | 71% → 87% |
| P2 18:12 | VAN | Zeev Buium from Elias Pettersson | 4–3 | 12% → 28% |
| P3 11:03 | NJD | Cody Glass from Timo Meier, Johnathan Kovacevic | 5–3 | 81% → 96% |
| P3 18:48 | VAN | Brock BoeserPP from Linus Karlsson, Tom Willander | 5–4 | 0% → 5% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Glass C | 12:28 | 2 | 1 | +1.23 | −0.11 | +1.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Nico Hischier C | 19:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.12 | +0.55 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Lenni Hameenaho R | 10:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.08 | +0.56 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Connor Brown R | 18:37 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.16 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Arseny Gritsyuk R | 13:14 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 13:27 | +0.12 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 20:23 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 21:22 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 14:28 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 19:03 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 23:56 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 17:02 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 13:38 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 13:10 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 15:26 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 22:46 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Hughes C | 18:54 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 11:32 | −0.35 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 60:00 | −1.54 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Boeser R | 20:26 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.03 | +0.73 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Teddy Blueger C | 14:25 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.15 | +0.80 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zeev Buium D | 23:59 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.06 | +0.59 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Linus Karlsson C | 14:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.04 | +0.38 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Elias Pettersson C | 14:18 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 27:27 | +0.10 | +0.15 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 12:25 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 15:29 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson D | 16:08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 14:48 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 12:44 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 18:11 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Liam Ohgren L | 12:33 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 17:34 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 18:29 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 15:33 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 19:18 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Willander D | 13:15 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 64:24 | −2.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.