PHI beat COL 7–3. Expected goals were close to even (PHI 2.8, COL 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Owen Tippett scored at 0:56 of the third, moving PHI’s win probability from 48% to 73%. Mackenzie Blackwood allowed 3.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:02 |  PHI | Owen Tippett from Denver Barkey, Cam York | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 18:57 | PHI | Denver BarkeyPP from Matvei Michkov, Owen Tippett | 2–0 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 7:17 |  COL | Parker Kelly from Zakhar Bardakov, Jack Ahcan | 2–1 | 17% → 32% |
| P2 10:29 | COL | Victor Olofsson from Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 11:01 | PHI | Bobby Brink from Noah Cates | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 12:12 | COL | Cale Makar from Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas | 3–3 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 0:56 | PHI | Owen Tippett from Sean Couturier | 4–3 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 2:00 | PHI | Matvei Michkov from Emil Andrae, Garnet Hathaway | 5–3 | 74% → 91% |
| P3 10:24 | PHI | Owen TippettSH unassisted | 6–3 | 95% → 99% |
| P3 16:53 | PHI | Matvei MichkovEN from Travis Konecny | 7–3 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Tippett R | 16:04 | 3 | 1 | +2.44 | +0.12 | +2.32 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matvei Michkov R | 14:31 | 2 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.18 | +0.37 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Bobby Brink R | 13:13 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.12 | +0.61 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denver Barkey C | 13:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.11 | +0.79 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Nick Seeler D | 22:16 | +0.27 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 22:30 | +0.06 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 15:50 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 21:33 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Cates L | 15:00 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Zegras C | 15:12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 22:05 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 17:37 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Lane Pederson C | 9:57 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 8:56 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Carl Grundstrom R | 11:30 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Andrae D | 13:20 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 19:53 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 20:48 | −0.52 | −0.06 | −0.47 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 69:51 | +0.19 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Kelly C | 14:06 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Cale Makar D | 26:21 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.06 | +0.72 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 20:39 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.02 | +0.57 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 17:50 | +0.20 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zakhar Bardakov C | 6:40 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jack Drury C | 14:38 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 26:15 | 2 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 17:36 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 17:54 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 17:47 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Ahcan D | 12:34 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Makar L | 8:37 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 15:17 | −0.21 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 9:36 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 22:38 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 16:29 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gavin Brindley C | 11:00 | −0.43 | −0.05 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 25:16 | 2 | −0.62 | −0.06 | −0.75 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 79:28 | −3.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.