NSH beat OTT 5–3. Expected goals were close to even (OTT 2.8, NSH 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Steven Stamkos scored at 18:47 of the third, moving NSH’s win probability from 50% to 95%. James Reimer allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:03 |  OTT | Stephen Halliday from Lars Eller, Nick Cousins | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:19 | OTT | Ridly Greig from Michael Amadio, Jake Sanderson | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 10:46 | OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Dylan Cozens, Artem Zub | 3–0 | 85% → 95% |
| P2 18:34 |  NSH | Steven StamkosPP from Luke Evangelista, Filip Forsberg | 3–1 | 3% → 11% |
| P3 8:19 | NSH | Jonathan Marchessault from Michael Bunting, Luke Evangelista | 3–2 | 6% → 22% |
| P3 10:07 | NSH | Steven StamkosPP from Ryan O'Reilly, Roman Josi | 3–3 | 21% → 52% |
| P3 18:47 | NSH | Steven Stamkos from Ryan O'Reilly, Nick Blankenburg | 3–4 | 50% → 95% |
| P3 19:33 | NSH | Cole SmithEN from Erik Haula, Ryan O'Reilly | 3–5 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:17 | 1 | +0.96 | −0.01 | +0.80 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ridly Greig C | 16:01 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Stephen Halliday C | 9:40 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.07 | +0.53 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 11:04 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 25:39 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Pinto C | 18:08 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.12 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 10:38 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 16:38 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 15:44 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 17:07 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 11:06 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.11 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 21:36 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 20:26 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:39 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Tyler Kleven D | 16:00 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 16:01 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Spence D | 13:31 | −0.27 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 20:19 | −0.65 | −0.08 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 78:52 | −1.34 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos C | 18:47 | 3 | +2.26 | −0.01 | +2.30 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 15:53 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.06 | +0.37 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 15:08 | +0.08 | +0.15 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 23:45 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 29:06 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.20 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Evangelista R | 13:35 | 2 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:46 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Barron D | 13:15 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 18:42 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Wood R | 10:04 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 12:56 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 18:46 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 12:44 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 8:51 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 22:42 | 3 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Cole Smith L | 16:53 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.09 | −0.30 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ozzy Wiesblatt C | 9:57 | −0.28 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 16:50 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 60:00 | −0.09 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.