CHI beat CAR 4–3 in a shootout. CHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jackson Blake scored at 14:20 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 14% to 51%. Spencer Knight saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:12 |  CHI | Ilya MikheyevSH unassisted | 1–0 | 46% → 63% |
| P1 12:50 | CAR | Joel Nystrom from Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 4:35 | CHI | Nick Lardis from Ryan Donato, Oliver Moore | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 9:16 | CAR | Jordan Staal from Jordan Martinook, Jaccob Slavin | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 13:38 | CHI | Connor Murphy from Tyler Bertuzzi, Ilya Mikheyev | 3–2 | 49% → 85% |
| P3 14:20 | CAR | Jackson Blake from Logan Stankoven, Taylor Hall | 3–3 | 14% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 19:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.08 | +0.66 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Connor Murphy D | 22:17 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.10 | +0.72 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Bedard C | 22:48 | +0.54 | −0.01 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.79 | ||
| Nick Lardis L | 11:30 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.04 | +0.63 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Landon Slaggert L | 12:22 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Oliver Moore C | 13:27 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.17 | −0.50 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +1.01 | |
| Colton Dach C | 10:11 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Louis Crevier D | 22:21 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 13:57 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 23:18 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 11:54 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 18:46 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Artyom Levshunov D | 16:37 | −0.28 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 27:15 | −0.28 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Greene C | 18:49 | −0.47 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 18:13 | −0.58 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 10:49 | 1 | −0.79 | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Frank Nazar C | 19:27 | −0.81 | +0.03 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 65:00 | +2.08 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Staal C | 18:14 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.15 | +0.80 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 22:12 | +0.92 | +0.03 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.79 | ||
| Joel Nystrom D | 10:43 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.03 | +0.81 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 15:37 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.07 | +0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 19:59 | +0.19 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 14:21 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 24:46 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 9:33 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Alexander Nikishin D | 15:47 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 15:35 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| William Carrier L | 12:41 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 24:29 | −0.18 | +0.09 | −0.34 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 21:14 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 9:23 | −0.42 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.49 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 25:39 | −0.47 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 19:30 | −0.73 | −0.22 | −0.52 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 23:13 | −0.82 | +0.09 | −0.42 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.49 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 14:14 | 1 | −0.92 | +0.10 | −0.54 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 74:44 | −0.17 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.