PIT beat CGY 4–1. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Bryan Rust scored at 0:50 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 73% to 90%. Dustin Wolf allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:49 |  PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Ryan Shea, John St. Ivany | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 12:32 | PIT | Egor Chinakhov from Tommy Novak, Evgeni Malkin | 2–0 | 69% → 85% |
| P2 19:57 |  CGY | Yegor Sharangovich from Zach Whitecloud, Kevin Bahl | 2–1 | 11% → 27% |
| P3 0:50 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell | 3–1 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 9:19 | PIT | Tommy Novak from John St. Ivany | 4–1 | 95% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Malkin C | 15:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.05 | +0.36 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 14:35 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.06 | +0.35 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 14:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.05 | +0.32 | +0.25 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.07 |
| John St. Ivany D | 16:55 | 2 | +0.31 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 17:14 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.06 | +0.41 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Shea D | 19:47 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.08 | −0.14 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Dewar C | 14:13 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 16:23 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 18:21 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 22:14 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 13:57 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 19:06 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 13:28 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 15:06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 21:39 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Kindel C | 14:33 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Justin Brazeau R | 14:32 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 16:18 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.18 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 60:00 | +0.94 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 17:58 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.02 | +0.32 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 23:34 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 25:12 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Kirkland C | 11:23 | +0.09 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matvei Gridin R | 11:25 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.17 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 14:05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 15:16 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 13:26 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 18:02 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 12:51 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:50 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Hunter Brzustewicz D | 15:55 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yan Kuznetsov D | 17:54 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 16:05 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 20:33 | −0.16 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 15:26 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 13:00 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:37 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.19 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 60:00 | −1.78 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.