UTA beat PHI 5–4 in overtime. UTA lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Clayton Keller scored at 2:01 of overtime, moving UTA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Samuel Ersson allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:30 |  PHI | Cam York from Christian Dvorak, Travis Sanheim | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:36 | PHI | Christian Dvorak from Travis Konecny, Noah Juulsen | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P2 0:58 | PHI | Bobby BrinkPP from Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale | 3–0 | 81% → 93% |
| P2 5:35 |  UTA | JJ Peterka from Daniil But | 3–1 | 6% → 18% |
| P2 6:11 | UTA | Lawson Crouse from Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller | 3–2 | 17% → 33% |
| P2 10:28 | PHI | Christian DvorakPP from Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale | 4–2 | 69% → 84% |
| P3 12:47 | UTA | Dylan GuentherPP from Nick Schmaltz, Mikhail Sergachev | 4–3 | 3% → 17% |
| P3 19:25 | UTA | Clayton KellerPP unassisted | 4–4 | 5% → 51% |
| OT 2:01 | UTA | Clayton Keller from Dylan Guenther | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Dvorak C | 23:06 | 2 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.15 | +0.84 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| Cam York D | 27:41 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.10 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby Brink R | 18:51 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.12 | +0.50 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 23:37 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Andrae D | 12:06 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 17:50 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.23 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 13:46 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Grebenkin R | 11:54 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 12:19 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Lane Pederson C | 10:46 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 20:43 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.11 | −0.22 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 19:17 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denver Barkey C | 12:49 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 12:55 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Drysdale D | 22:44 | 2 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Cates L | 15:29 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 17:09 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 12:11 | −0.50 | −0.00 | −0.49 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 62:01 | −2.24 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller R | 19:58 | 2 | 1 | +1.20 | +0.01 | +1.21 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| JJ Peterka R | 14:08 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.71 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 20:40 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.12 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 19:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.05 | +0.48 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack McBain C | 15:00 | +0.22 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.07 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 20:35 | +0.15 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniil But L | 11:26 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 20:12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 14:25 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| John Marino D | 19:48 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 13:39 | −0.16 | +0.09 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 7:22 | −0.17 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 7:33 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 27:13 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 16:05 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 16:51 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:35 | 2 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Ian Cole D | 16:51 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 83:02 | −0.59 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.