NJD beat EDM 2–1. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cody Glass scored at 8:32 of the second, moving NJD’s win probability from 47% to 68%. Jake Allen saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:23 | NJD | Arseny Gritsyuk from Cody Glass, Dougie Hamilton | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 7:02 | EDM | Matt Savoie from Jake Walman, Isaac Howard | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 8:32 | NJD | Cody Glass from Arseny Gritsyuk, Connor Brown | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arseny Gritsyuk R | 13:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.20 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cody Glass C | 14:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.15 | +0.55 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 13:27 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lenni Hameenaho R | 9:56 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 16:20 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 24:14 | −0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 10:57 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 19:04 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 17:09 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 9:25 | −0.14 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 20:03 | −0.14 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.10 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 24:03 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 16:44 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 15:18 | −0.23 | −0.16 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 19:55 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.12 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 20:47 | −0.30 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 18:27 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 16:22 | −0.48 | −0.11 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 60:00 | +1.98 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Savoie C | 16:42 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.00 | +0.69 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 23:36 | +0.14 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 26:48 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 18:32 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Regula D | 5:12 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 23:55 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 14:53 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 9:54 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 12:51 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaac Howard L | 12:46 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 13:55 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 25:17 | −0.12 | +0.34 | −0.58 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 12:42 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 8:41 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 18:37 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 19:12 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.04 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 15:16 | −0.34 | +0.13 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 24:27 | −0.54 | +0.28 | −0.82 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 58:29 | −0.07 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.