BUF beat NSH 5–3. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Noah Ostlund scored at 8:11 of the first, moving BUF’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Juuse Saros allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:11 | BUF | Noah Ostlund from Konsta Helenius, Rasmus Dahlin | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 11:45 | BUF | Noah Ostlund from Konsta Helenius, Owen Power | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P1 17:24 | BUF | Konsta Helenius from Peyton Krebs | 3–0 | 79% → 92% |
| P2 4:20 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Alex Tuch, Josh Doan | 4–0 | 94% → 99% |
| P2 10:09 |  NSH | Ryan O'ReillyPP from Filip Forsberg, Brady Skjei | 4–1 | 1% → 5% |
| P2 11:54 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Ryan O'Reilly | 4–2 | 4% → 15% |
| P3 9:30 | NSH | Ryan O'Reilly from Luke Evangelista, Filip Forsberg | 4–3 | 5% → 20% |
| P3 18:14 | BUF | Peyton KrebsEN from Mattias Samuelsson | 5–3 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Ostlund C | 16:58 | 2 | +1.42 | +0.08 | +1.40 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Konsta Helenius C | 14:43 | 1 | 2 | +0.78 | +0.14 | +0.65 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tage Thompson C | 13:33 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.05 | +0.78 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 25:53 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Benson L | 15:32 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Metsa D | 8:06 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 19:30 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 8:36 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 28:02 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 23:59 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 15:44 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 12:31 | 1 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Josh Doan R | 12:57 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Power D | 23:25 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 11:02 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 11:25 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 16:32 | −0.57 | −0.03 | −0.55 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 17:32 | −0.74 | −0.04 | −0.52 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 60:00 | −0.04 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 20:42 | 2 | 1 | +1.49 | +0.23 | +1.28 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:38 | 1 | 2 | +0.73 | +0.19 | +0.49 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Justin Barron D | 9:15 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ozzy Wiesblatt C | 13:43 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 18:15 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 20:09 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Wood R | 13:33 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 26:15 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 15:50 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 18:06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 13:49 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 14:30 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 13:19 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 28:24 | −0.09 | +0.14 | −0.27 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 12:39 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 13:28 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 15:28 | −0.30 | +0.04 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 20:35 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.17 | −0.53 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 51:14 | +0.93 |
| Juuse Saros G | 49:37 | −1.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.