VGK beat NSH 7–2. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Shea Theodore scored at 18:22 of the second, moving VGK’s win probability from 53% to 76%. Justus Annunen allowed 3.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:10 |  NSH | Luke Evangelista from Roman Josi | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 17:17 | VGK | Alexander Holtz from Shea Theodore, Cole Reinhardt | 1–1 | 29% → 53% |
| P2 18:22 | VGK | Shea Theodore from Jeremy Lauzon, Keegan Kolesar | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 5:52 | VGK | Pavel Dorofeyev from Mitch Marner | 1–3 | 80% → 94% |
| P3 8:52 | VGK | Mark Stone from Jack Eichel, Zach Whitecloud | 1–4 | 96% → 100% |
| P3 12:26 | VGK | Cole Reinhardt from Alexander Holtz, Tanner Laczynski | 1–5 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 13:16 | VGK | Mitch Marner from Reilly Smith, Akira Schmid | 1–6 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 15:12 | VGK | Keegan Kolesar from Tomas Hertl, Braeden Bowman | 1–7 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 19:38 | NSH | Filip ForsbergPP from Ryan O'Reilly, Roman Josi | 2–7 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:08 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.07 | +0.56 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Evangelista R | 17:55 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.67 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 11:17 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 17:38 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 13:43 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 12:25 | +0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 23:26 | 2 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 16:27 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 21:37 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 13:38 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 18:16 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reid Schaefer L | 11:17 | −0.15 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:36 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Cole Smith L | 13:49 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:41 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 20:05 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 12:41 | −0.34 | +0.07 | −0.39 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 15:29 | −0.69 | +0.00 | −0.67 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 59:52 | −3.11 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Stone R | 17:42 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.10 | +0.71 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Holtz R | 10:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.06 | +0.88 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Shea Theodore D | 19:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.07 | +0.59 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 13:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.13 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mitch Marner R | 16:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.12 | +0.64 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Cole Reinhardt L | 9:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.06 | +0.54 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 17:01 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.04 | +0.37 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 16:16 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 14:30 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braeden Bowman R | 12:02 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 17:46 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 18:44 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 20:18 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 18:04 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 23:55 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Laczynski C | 10:45 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 16:40 | −0.26 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 18:53 | 1 | −0.69 | +0.06 | −0.60 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid G | 59:55 | +0.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.