MTL beat OTT 6–5 in overtime. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cole Caufield scored at 0:33 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Leevi Meriläinen allowed 3.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:06 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 17:50 | MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson | 2–0 | 66% → 79% |
| P2 0:42 | OTT | Brady TkachukPP from Claude Giroux, Jake Sanderson | 2–1 | 23% → 35% |
| P2 3:07 | OTT | Tim Stützle from Nick Cousins, Lars Eller | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 4:26 | MTL | Josh Anderson from Mike Matheson, Noah Dobson | 3–2 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 15:31 | OTT | Dylan CozensPP from Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 18:24 | OTT | David Perron from Artem Zub, Jake Sanderson | 3–4 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 7:55 | OTT | Jake Sanderson from Ridly Greig | 3–5 | 80% → 95% |
| P3 15:36 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Lane Hutson, Phillip Danault | 4–5 | 1% → 11% |
| P3 16:41 | MTL | Alexandre Carrier from Ivan Demidov, Josh Anderson | 5–5 | 9% → 49% |
| OT 0:33 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Lane Hutson | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 20:00 | 2 | +1.53 | −0.05 | +1.61 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 19:19 | 2 | 1 | +1.44 | −0.02 | +1.49 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 17:12 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.28 | +0.90 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 12:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.01 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 7:40 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 23:59 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 21:54 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 10:59 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 12:48 | +0.05 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 13:36 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 12:56 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:25 | 2 | −0.07 | +0.28 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 15:32 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 15:20 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Oliver Kapanen C | 14:04 | −0.23 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 26:22 | 3 | −0.30 | +0.11 | −0.41 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 15:42 | −0.48 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 15:07 | 1 | −0.66 | −0.16 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 60:12 | −1.23 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cozens C | 13:17 | 1 | +1.22 | +0.32 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 22:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | −0.04 | +0.71 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Jake Sanderson D | 25:39 | 1 | 3 | +0.68 | +0.08 | +0.59 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| David Perron L | 10:37 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.03 | +0.63 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ridly Greig C | 17:30 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Kleven D | 15:57 | +0.17 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 14:51 | +0.13 | +0.18 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 17:36 | +0.11 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 21:45 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lars Eller C | 9:56 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 17:35 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 13:21 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 10:36 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 14:54 | −0.24 | +0.19 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 10:50 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:14 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.09 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 21:42 | −0.38 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 18:14 | −0.61 | +0.03 | −0.62 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Leevi Meriläinen G | 60:33 | −3.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.