UTA beat SEA 6–3. Expected goals were close to even (SEA 3.0, UTA 3.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nate Schmidt scored at 14:30 of the third, moving UTA’s win probability from 51% to 88%. Philipp Grubauer allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:09 |  SEA | Jordan Eberle from Kaapo Kakko, Matty Beniers | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 2:47 | UTA | Kevin StenlundSH from Lawson Crouse, Ian Cole | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 0:28 | UTA | Nate Schmidt from Jack McBain, Dylan Guenther | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 4:31 | UTA | Nick Schmaltz from Lawson Crouse, Nate Schmidt | 1–3 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 15:11 | SEA | Matty Beniers from Vince Dunn, Berkly Catton | 2–3 | 10% → 25% |
| P2 17:43 | SEA | Chandler Stephenson from Frederick Gaudreau, Eeli Tolvanen | 3–3 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 14:30 | UTA | Nate Schmidt from Clayton Keller | 3–4 | 51% → 88% |
| P3 15:12 | UTA | Lawson Crouse from Clayton Keller, Nate Schmidt | 3–5 | 89% → 99% |
| P3 19:09 | UTA | Barrett HaytonEN from John Marino, Karel Vejmelka | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Stephenson C | 18:31 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.09 | +0.72 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 15:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.06 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jordan Eberle R | 15:03 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.11 | +0.79 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 17:27 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 18:06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 12:59 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Meyers C | 14:55 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 23:50 | −0.04 | +0.10 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 18:36 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 18:28 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 16:52 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Berkly Catton C | 13:40 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 19:55 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 15:45 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 13:02 | −0.31 | −0.08 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 14:16 | −0.32 | +0.11 | −0.63 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 12:30 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.47 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 18:18 | −0.36 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 57:49 | −1.66 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Schmidt D | 20:39 | 2 | 2 | +1.68 | +0.10 | +1.55 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:01 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.14 | +0.46 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 14:26 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.04 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 18:42 | 1 | 2 | +0.54 | +0.11 | +0.46 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| John Marino D | 22:21 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 18:08 | 2 | +0.13 | +0.19 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 14:03 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Liam O'Brien C | 8:50 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 19:17 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick DeSimone D | 15:15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniil But L | 13:05 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 18:01 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 15:37 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 16:55 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 9:14 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 20:50 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 14:23 | −0.48 | −0.02 | −0.45 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 15:13 | 1 | −0.79 | −0.05 | −0.58 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | −0.32 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.