WPG beat MIN 6–2. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tanner Pearson scored at 19:49 of the first, moving WPG’s win probability from 66% to 80%. Jesper Wallstedt allowed 4.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:08 |  WPG | Jonathan ToewsPP from Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele | 1–0 | 52% → 65% |
| P1 19:49 | WPG | Tanner Pearson from Morgan Barron, Dylan DeMelo | 2–0 | 66% → 80% |
| P1 19:57 | WPG | Josh Morrissey from Mark Scheifele, Jonathan Toews | 3–0 | 80% → 93% |
| P2 4:53 |  MIN | Danila Yurov from Jake Middleton, Vladimir Tarasenko | 3–1 | 6% → 18% |
| P2 9:33 | WPG | Logan Stanley unassisted | 4–1 | 85% → 95% |
| P2 12:51 | WPG | Gabriel VilardiPP from Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele | 5–1 | 96% → 99% |
| P2 17:12 | WPG | Mark Scheifele from Alex Iafallo, Kyle Connor | 6–1 | 99% → 99% |
| P3 17:18 | MIN | Marcus Johansson from Matt Boldy, Ryan Hartman | 6–2 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Morrissey D | 22:13 | 1 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.10 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Mark Scheifele C | 18:55 | 1 | 3 | +0.84 | +0.03 | +0.78 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 16:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.08 | +0.60 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 |
| Jonathan Toews C | 15:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.06 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Tanner Pearson L | 13:51 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.07 | +0.55 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Logan Stanley D | 18:04 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.07 | +0.84 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Samberg D | 18:36 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 19:49 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 12:40 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 13:16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 13:50 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Elias Salomonsson D | 18:45 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 18:38 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Koepke L | 12:39 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 16:47 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 16:44 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 14:54 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.05 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cole Perfetti C | 12:46 | −0.48 | −0.11 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 59:42 | +1.24 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danila Yurov R | 15:46 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.02 | +0.63 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 15:35 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.04 | +0.62 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 10:52 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 19:40 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 15:37 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 20:04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daemon Hunt D | 11:36 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Spacek D | 11:59 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 25:38 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 16:23 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 28:28 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Jones C | 9:05 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 13:17 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.08 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 8:19 | −0.32 | −0.05 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 18:57 | −0.36 | +0.06 | −0.45 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 13:52 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.02 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 18:25 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.03 | −0.34 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 19:16 | 1 | −0.66 | +0.02 | −0.50 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 20:00 | +0.77 |
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 40:00 | −4.13 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.