NSH beat EDM 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (EDM 2.7, NSH 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Roman Josi scored at 3:43 of overtime, moving NSH’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Tristan Jarry allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:45 |  NSH | Steven Stamkos from Michael Bunting | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 17:06 |  EDM | Zach HymanPP from Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 3:03 | NSH | Erik Haula from Matthew Wood, Adam Wilsby | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 7:20 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Kasperi Kapanen, Vasily Podkolzin | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 13:12 | EDM | Zach HymanPP from Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid | 3–2 | 48% → 70% |
| P2 13:50 | NSH | Roman Josi from Nick Blankenburg | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| OT 3:43 | NSH | Roman Josi from Brady Skjei, Ryan O'Reilly | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Hyman L | 19:13 | 2 | +1.45 | +0.07 | +1.39 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 25:16 | 1 | 2 | +0.85 | +0.20 | +0.59 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 21:59 | +0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 28:53 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 10:20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 14:48 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 12:39 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:44 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 18:56 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 17:14 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 13:53 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 7:41 | −0.18 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 15:17 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Isaac Howard L | 9:46 | −0.24 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:30 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 27:42 | 2 | −0.28 | +0.11 | −0.44 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Mattias Janmark C | 10:01 | −0.35 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 17:43 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 63:43 | −1.42 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Josi D | 27:00 | 2 | +1.86 | +0.08 | +1.76 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:12 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.19 | +0.68 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 16:33 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.31 | +0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 10:53 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 13:31 | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 20:14 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reid Schaefer L | 11:39 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Wood R | 10:56 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 17:47 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Barron D | 15:01 | −0.07 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Wilsby D | 21:30 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 14:55 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.15 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 23:20 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 13:59 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 17:27 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 23:10 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:38 | −0.32 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 17:06 | −0.47 | −0.07 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 63:43 | −0.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.