STL beat CAR 3–0. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nick Bjugstad scored short-handed at 3:09 of the second, moving STL’s win probability from 52% to 71%. Joel Hofer saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:09 | STL | Nick BjugstadSH from Otto Stenberg, Justin Faulk | 0–1 | 52% → 71% |
| P2 9:45 | STL | Dalibor Dvorsky from Jake Neighbours, Tyler Tucker | 0–2 | 74% → 88% |
| P2 12:49 | STL | Jimmy SnuggerudPP from Jordan Kyrou, Brayden Schenn | 0–3 | 90% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Hall L | 12:49 | +0.34 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:24 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 14:47 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:57 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 18:01 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 18:59 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 11:18 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 24:29 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 14:20 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 14:24 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 17:35 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 18:22 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 14:25 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 13:50 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:42 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 18:11 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 14:24 | −0.32 | +0.08 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 21:19 | −0.44 | +0.04 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 68:48 | −0.31 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bjugstad C | 10:56 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.02 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.08 | |
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 15:03 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.08 | +0.66 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 16:18 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.03 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 21:21 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 17:19 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Otto Stenberg C | 14:11 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 12:36 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Kessel D | 16:02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 11:49 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 16:01 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 21:17 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 16:45 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 24:29 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 15:20 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Tucker D | 18:25 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 17:42 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Logan Mailloux D | 14:55 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 13:31 | −0.66 | −0.02 | −0.64 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 60:00 | +2.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.