WSH beat MTL 3–2 in overtime. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 4.7 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Connor McMichael scored at 4:21 of overtime, moving WSH’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Samuel Montembeault saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:14 | MTL | Josh AndersonSH unassisted | 1–0 | 46% → 63% |
| P2 7:40 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Phillip Danault, Zachary Bolduc | 2–0 | 68% → 83% |
| P3 5:06 | WSH | Ethen Frank from Matt Roy, Rasmus Sandin | 2–1 | 8% → 24% |
| P3 18:06 | WSH | Ethen FrankPP from Rasmus Sandin, Anthony Beauvillier | 2–2 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 4:21 | WSH | Connor McMichael from Dylan Strome, Rasmus Sandin | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Anderson R | 12:32 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.09 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 8:43 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.02 | +0.66 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Demidov R | 16:03 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 8:57 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 9:44 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:01 | −0.09 | −0.20 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 17:18 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 28:37 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 11:08 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sammy Blais L | 6:58 | −0.27 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 29:14 | −0.33 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 23:08 | −0.34 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 26:06 | −0.38 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 17:03 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.30 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 12:58 | −0.44 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 18:23 | −0.47 | +0.03 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kapanen C | 23:10 | −0.62 | −0.27 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 21:21 | −1.01 | −0.49 | −0.51 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 73:48 | +2.28 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethen Frank R | 18:52 | 2 | +1.32 | +0.21 | +1.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 23:15 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.11 | +0.32 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 21:31 | +0.45 | +0.45 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan McIlrath D | 7:10 | +0.28 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 16:20 | +0.28 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 13:31 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Leonard R | 16:32 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 23:53 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 8:35 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 25:20 | 3 | −0.08 | +0.40 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 25:19 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.71 | −0.62 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Brett Leason R | 10:09 | −0.11 | +0.13 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 18:46 | −0.11 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 19:31 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sonny Milano L | 9:21 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 24:45 | −0.17 | +0.56 | −0.83 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 9:29 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 29:58 | −0.30 | +0.39 | −0.71 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 83:38 | +0.33 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.