VGK beat SJS 7–2. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Collin Graf scored at 9:33 of the first, moving SJS’s win probability from 37% to 53%. Yaroslav Askarov allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:19 |  VGK | Jack Eichel from Ivan Barbashev, Jeremy Lauzon | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:33 |  SJS | Collin Graf from Jeff Skinner | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 10:57 | VGK | Pavel DorofeyevPP from Tomas Hertl, Mark Stone | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 4:19 | VGK | Jack Eichel from Mark Stone | 3–1 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 11:00 | VGK | Tomas HertlPP from Mark Stone, Pavel Dorofeyev | 4–1 | 85% → 95% |
| P2 12:25 | VGK | Zach Whitecloud from Tomas Hertl, Noah Hanifin | 5–1 | 96% → 99% |
| P2 16:29 | SJS | Alexander Wennberg from Timothy Liljegren, Tyler Toffoli | 5–2 | 1% → 3% |
| P3 17:03 | VGK | Shea TheodoreEN from Tomas Hertl | 6–2 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 18:59 | VGK | Tomas Hertl from Pavel Dorofeyev, Noah Hanifin | 7–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl C | 15:35 | 2 | 3 | +1.45 | +0.09 | +1.29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| Jack Eichel C | 17:00 | 2 | +1.04 | +0.09 | +0.92 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 19:02 | 1 | +1.00 | −0.07 | +0.89 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 18:25 | 1 | 2 | +0.46 | +0.15 | +0.51 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 20:26 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 23:05 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.18 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 11:01 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 15:26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 15:11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:51 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 17:44 | 3 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 21:40 | −0.10 | +0.13 | −0.27 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 11:36 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Reinhardt L | 9:53 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 15:49 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 17:03 | −0.25 | +0.10 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braeden Bowman R | 10:59 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.34 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:24 | 2 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carl Lindbom G | 69:56 | −0.01 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Graf R | 13:13 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.13 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 21:06 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 23:53 | +0.11 | +0.03 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 21:48 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavol Regenda L | 12:33 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 11:34 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 14:15 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:19 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Iorio D | 17:18 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Misa C | 11:43 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 10:56 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Dickinson D | 16:47 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:52 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 22:41 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.42 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Igor Chernyshov L | 16:37 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 12:15 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 11:42 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 18:55 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.16 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 71:22 | −2.34 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.