WPG beat NJD 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (NJD 3.1, WPG 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Tanner Pearson scored at 6:17 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 52% to 80%. Jake Allen allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:50 | WPG | Alex Iafallo from Nino Niederreiter, Dylan Samberg | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:27 |  NJD | Nico Hischier from Luke Hughes, Jesper Bratt | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 1:05 | NJD | Cody Glass from Luke Hughes, Jack Hughes | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 2:36 | WPG | Jonathan Toews from Cole Perfetti | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 8:08 | NJD | Cody Glass from Jack Hughes, Johnathan Kovacevic | 3–2 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 17:57 | WPG | Gabriel Vilardi from Cole Perfetti, Josh Morrissey | 3–3 | 28% → 53% |
| P3 6:17 | WPG | Tanner Pearson from Josh Morrissey, Cole Koepke | 3–4 | 52% → 80% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Glass C | 12:19 | 2 | +1.64 | +0.03 | +1.64 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 24:16 | 1 | +1.09 | +0.27 | +0.63 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 19:50 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 9:24 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 24:41 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.14 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 9:49 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 18:14 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 18:49 | −0.15 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Arseny Gritsyuk R | 14:16 | −0.17 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 9:25 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 19:28 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 15:14 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 10:00 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 27:04 | 2 | −0.26 | +0.28 | −0.56 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 21:05 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.24 | −0.59 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 17:49 | −0.35 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 16:44 | −0.37 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 15:07 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 58:09 | −1.43 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Toews C | 15:17 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.11 | +0.72 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 16:16 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.16 | +0.53 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tanner Pearson L | 8:16 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.10 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Alex Iafallo L | 17:47 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.15 | +0.45 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Colin Miller D | 4:14 | +0.24 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 16:25 | +0.17 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 15:04 | 2 | +0.07 | +0.29 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 22:56 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 17:26 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.22 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 17:29 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 21:13 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danil Zhilkin C | 10:39 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Koepke L | 10:43 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 16:22 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 26:28 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 25:07 | −0.19 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 20:40 | −0.23 | −0.25 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 19:42 | −0.60 | −0.30 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:00 | −0.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.