LAK beat EDM 4–3 in a shootout. LAK lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alex Laferriere scored at 6:21 of the third, moving LAK’s win probability from 48% to 77%. Connor Ingram allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:12 |  EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Kasperi Kapanen | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 17:50 | LAK | Corey PerryPP from Brandt Clarke, Andrei Kuzmenko | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 1:07 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Evan Bouchard | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 3:42 | LAK | Andre Lee from Quinton Byfield, Taylor Ward | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 6:21 | LAK | Alex Laferriere from Brandt Clarke, Adrian Kempe | 3–2 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 9:20 | EDM | Connor McDavidPP from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard | 3–3 | 26% → 53% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Lee L | 7:48 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.12 | +0.80 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Corey Perry R | 15:47 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.01 | +0.68 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 19:34 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.66 | |
| Alex Laferriere R | 22:56 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.17 | +0.55 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 17:56 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Ward R | 8:49 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.16 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mikey Anderson D | 24:31 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Malott L | 13:31 | +0.05 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 17:32 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 20:02 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Turcotte C | 15:11 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Samuel Helenius C | 9:36 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 18:50 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 28:14 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 20:03 | −0.26 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 22:21 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 16:35 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Brandt Clarke D | 18:21 | 2 | −0.47 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.11 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 65:00 | +1.04 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 29:22 | 2 | +1.15 | +0.29 | +1.11 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.29 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 32:18 | 2 | +0.36 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 16:48 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 28:59 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.32 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 9:19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 23:02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 8:16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 16:49 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 18:18 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Regula D | 9:56 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 11:47 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 14:20 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 8:06 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 12:40 | −0.15 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 24:41 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaac Howard L | 10:24 | −0.31 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 23:31 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.33 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 22:29 | −0.60 | +0.01 | −0.60 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 65:00 | −1.49 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.