NYI beat MIN 4–3 in overtime. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Simon Holmstrom scored at 1:34 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Filip Gustavsson allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:51 | MIN | Ben Jones from Brock Faber, Quinn Hughes | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:18 | NYI | Jean-Gabriel Pageau unassisted | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 15:25 | MIN | Matt BoldyPP from Quinn Hughes, Mats Zuccarello | 1–2 | 57% → 71% |
| P2 1:29 | NYI | Simon Holmstrom from Tony DeAngelo | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 8:26 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Daemon Hunt, Quinn Hughes | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 19:34 | NYI | Casey CizikasSH from Simon Holmstrom | 3–3 | 22% → 47% |
| OT 1:34 | NYI | Simon Holmstrom from Tony DeAngelo, Jonathan Drouin | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Holmstrom R | 17:40 | 2 | 1 | +1.43 | −0.20 | +1.64 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Casey Cizikas C | 12:55 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.12 | +0.56 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 17:48 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.32 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Marc Gatcomb C | 9:54 | +0.09 | +0.22 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 16:59 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 8:43 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 23:33 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 14:43 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 8:42 | −0.12 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 14:59 | −0.19 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 21:52 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 13:15 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Matthew Schaefer D | 27:41 | −0.24 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 20:11 | −0.25 | −0.12 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Calum Ritchie C | 13:20 | −0.37 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 17:55 | 2 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Maksim Shabanov R | 16:27 | −0.51 | −0.48 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 23:14 | −0.56 | −0.57 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 71:04 | +0.75 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Jones C | 11:39 | 1 | +0.88 | −0.12 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 23:59 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.38 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 21:42 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.46 | −0.13 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Faber D | 27:13 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.29 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 12:31 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 17:43 | +0.17 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daemon Hunt D | 11:55 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 15:44 | +0.08 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 11:20 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:13 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 13:57 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 19:44 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 13:45 | −0.06 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 14:25 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 12:39 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danila Yurov R | 18:16 | −0.24 | +0.38 | −0.60 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 30:37 | 3 | −0.42 | +0.13 | −0.57 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:15 | −0.43 | +0.07 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 74:08 | −1.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.