COL beat CBJ 4–0. Expected goals were close to even (CBJ 2.9, COL 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Brent Burns scored at 13:58 of the first, moving COL’s win probability from 53% to 71%. Trent Miner saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:58 | COL | Brent Burns from Ross Colton, Gavin Brindley | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 17:28 | COL | Victor Olofsson from Jack Drury, Parker Kelly | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 10:30 | COL | Ilya Solovyov from Parker Kelly, Victor Olofsson | 0–3 | 88% → 96% |
| P3 8:33 | COL | Brent Burns from Zakhar Bardakov, Gavin Brindley | 0–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boone Jenner C | 17:14 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 11:29 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 24:25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 16:29 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 15:54 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 15:23 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 12:27 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 22:21 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 15:51 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 16:55 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 11:14 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 14:04 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 16:34 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.33 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 11:39 | −0.23 | +0.05 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 11:39 | −0.24 | +0.07 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 22:23 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.23 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 19:58 | −0.46 | −0.08 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 20:01 | −0.60 | −0.11 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 60:00 | −0.90 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Burns D | 20:04 | 2 | +1.62 | −0.02 | +1.60 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Solovyov D | 11:56 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.06 | +0.86 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 13:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.07 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Cale Makar D | 23:37 | +0.33 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 14:38 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 19:24 | +0.08 | +0.17 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 15:18 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 15:16 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 20:41 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 13:15 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Malinski D | 20:22 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zakhar Bardakov C | 11:29 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 18:25 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Gavin Brindley C | 11:48 | 2 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 20:51 | −0.26 | +0.06 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 20:34 | −0.30 | +0.06 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| T.J. Tynan C | 9:53 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 20:08 | −0.85 | +0.04 | −0.81 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Trent Miner G | 69:50 | +2.20 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.