TOR beat PHI 2–1 in overtime. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Easton Cowan scored at 2:48 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Dennis Hildeby saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:55 |  PHI | Travis Konecny from Christian Dvorak, Rasmus Ristolainen | 0–1 | 54% → 72% |
| P3 14:04 | TOR | Scott LaughtonSH unassisted | 1–1 | 12% → 47% |
| OT 2:48 | TOR | Easton Cowan from John Tavares | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Laughton C | 14:09 | 1 | +1.06 | −0.15 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.18 | |
| Easton Cowan R | 13:28 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.03 | +0.63 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 17:22 | +0.17 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 25:37 | +0.17 | +0.20 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 17:54 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Brandon Carlo D | 18:52 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 12:28 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Philippe Myers D | 14:25 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 13:31 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 15:32 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.11 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 16:47 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 10:24 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 11:37 | −0.14 | +0.08 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 20:38 | −0.27 | −0.21 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 20:40 | −0.29 | +0.12 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 18:22 | −0.34 | −0.12 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 23:25 | −0.42 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 19:04 | −0.43 | −0.26 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dennis Hildeby G | 72:38 | +2.04 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Konecny R | 13:04 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.14 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 25:52 | +0.11 | +0.19 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 12:31 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denver Barkey C | 14:24 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:30 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Andrae D | 13:43 | −0.07 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 16:14 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 23:31 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 18:28 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 13:59 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Rodrigo Abols C | 13:04 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Cam York D | 23:09 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Grebenkin R | 13:06 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 16:26 | −0.15 | +0.14 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 21:21 | −0.22 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 20:00 | −0.23 | +0.07 | −0.48 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 21:26 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.21 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Matvei Michkov R | 14:59 | −0.30 | +0.06 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 72:26 | −0.17 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.