UTA beat OTT 3–1. UTA lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Lawson Crouse scored at 3:59 of the first, moving UTA’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Karel Vejmelka saved 2.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:59 |  UTA | Lawson Crouse from Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 7:20 | UTA | John Marino from Clayton Keller, Nate Schmidt | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 17:41 | OTT | Ridly Greig from Artem Zub, Jake Sanderson | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
| P3 5:41 | UTA | Daniil But from Jack McBain, Brandon Tanev | 1–3 | 80% → 95% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ridly Greig C | 17:13 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.14 | +0.29 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 13:57 | +0.24 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 13:43 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 22:18 | +0.17 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 9:37 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 19:25 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 17:01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 7:53 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 17:49 | −0.09 | +0.13 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 26:12 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.17 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Spence D | 14:55 | −0.15 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 24:29 | −0.17 | +0.24 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 11:24 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stephen Halliday C | 8:00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 18:13 | −0.21 | +0.16 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 16:24 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:38 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 18:59 | −0.45 | +0.18 | −0.67 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Leevi Meriläinen G | 79:37 | −0.26 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Marino D | 20:14 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.09 | +0.86 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daniil But L | 13:32 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.03 | +0.57 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:51 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.08 | +0.37 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 23:12 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 17:36 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 13:57 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 11:36 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 10:59 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 22:31 | 2 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick DeSimone D | 9:28 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 10:12 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 17:53 | −0.23 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:57 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:29 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 25:20 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack McBain C | 14:30 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 11:53 | −0.36 | −0.10 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 16:50 | −0.46 | −0.05 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | +2.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.