MTL beat CGY 4–1. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Alexandre Texier scored at 3:10 of the second, moving MTL’s win probability from 53% to 72%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:10 | MTL | Alexandre Texier from Alexandre Carrier, Cole Caufield | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 7:05 | MTL | Lane Hutson from Phillip Danault, Alexandre Texier | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 8:12 | MTL | Oliver Kapanen from Juraj Slafkovský | 0–3 | 88% → 96% |
| P2 17:39 |  CGY | Joel Farabee from Yegor Sharangovich, Hunter Brzustewicz | 1–3 | 2% → 9% |
| P3 3:56 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Alexandre Texier, Nick Suzuki | 1–4 | 93% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Farabee L | 13:41 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.02 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Stromgren L | 8:29 | +0.30 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 15:03 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Hunter Brzustewicz D | 15:36 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:21 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 13:23 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 10:47 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 15:57 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Klapka R | 13:38 | −0.15 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 11:54 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 19:56 | −0.15 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 18:04 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:32 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yan Kuznetsov D | 18:13 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 22:40 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 22:13 | −0.32 | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 18:30 | −0.35 | −0.14 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 20:51 | −0.47 | −0.03 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 79:30 | −0.36 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lane Hutson D | 23:29 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.15 | +0.87 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 13:57 | 1 | 2 | +0.92 | +0.14 | +0.78 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 14:52 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.06 | +0.61 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.12 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 14:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.10 | +0.41 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Joe Veleno C | 14:17 | +0.20 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 19:22 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Demidov R | 15:08 | +0.10 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 18:46 | +0.09 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 23:10 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 17:54 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 16:11 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 14:00 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 16:30 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 16:01 | −0.24 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Beck C | 11:16 | −0.32 | +0.03 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 18:22 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.11 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.11 | |
| Sammy Blais L | 10:38 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:24 | −0.53 | +0.07 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fowler G | 60:00 | +0.92 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.