SEA beat BOS 7–4. SEA lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ben Meyers scored at 18:23 of the second, moving SEA’s win probability from 53% to 76%. Jeremy Swayman allowed 3.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:50 | SEA | Jordan EberlePP from Matty Beniers, Vince Dunn | 0–1 | 57% → 70% |
| P1 12:47 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Nikita Zadorov, Marat Khusnutdinov | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 2:48 | SEA | Berkly Catton from Jared McCann, Ryker Evans | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 6:28 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Charlie McAvoy, Elias Lindholm | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 18:23 | SEA | Ben Meyers from Tye Kartye | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 19:59 | SEA | Jared McCannPP from Vince Dunn, Matty Beniers | 2–4 | 78% → 92% |
| P3 10:21 | SEA | Kaapo Kakko from Frederick Gaudreau, Chandler Stephenson | 2–5 | 96% → 100% |
| P3 14:20 | SEA | Berkly CattonPP from Frederick Gaudreau, Kaapo Kakko | 2–6 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 14:50 | BOS | Mason Lohrei from Pavel Zacha, Viktor Arvidsson | 3–6 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 17:38 | BOS | Viktor ArvidssonPP from Casey Mittelstadt, Alex Steeves | 4–6 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 19:48 | SEA | Kaapo KakkoEN unassisted | 4–7 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak R | 21:09 | 2 | +1.35 | +0.20 | +1.27 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Lohrei D | 17:32 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.12 | +0.67 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 23:51 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.24 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 12:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.09 | +0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 16:07 | +0.11 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fraser Minten C | 15:17 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 20:18 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 16:21 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 12:34 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 13:46 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 12:54 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 16:29 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Steeves C | 11:41 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 14:46 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 18:25 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.12 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 13:51 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 23:14 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 16:38 | −0.31 | −0.13 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 67:05 | −3.19 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkly Catton C | 13:56 | 2 | +1.45 | −0.01 | +1.68 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 16:59 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.04 | +0.69 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 16:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.06 | +0.51 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 16:02 | 2 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.05 | +0.72 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ben Meyers C | 11:56 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.08 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 17:04 | +0.12 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 15:13 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cale Fleury D | 21:12 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 19:59 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 22:17 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 9:56 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 21:37 | −0.14 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 18:05 | 2 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Winterton C | 14:34 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Melanson R | 9:58 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 18:50 | 2 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Shane Wright C | 13:36 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 18:18 | 2 | −0.39 | +0.06 | −0.50 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 60:00 | −0.38 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.