SEA beat CGY 5–1. SEA lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Shane Wright scored at 1:57 of the third, moving SEA’s win probability from 48% to 74%. Philipp Grubauer saved 3.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:33 |  CGY | Adam Klapka from Ryan Lomberg, MacKenzie Weegar | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 2:17 | SEA | Jacob Melanson from Ryan Winterton | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 1:57 | SEA | Shane Wright from Ben Meyers | 2–1 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 5:12 | SEA | Vince Dunn from Kaapo Kakko, Adam Larsson | 3–1 | 76% → 92% |
| P3 17:25 | SEA | Frederick GaudreauEN from Chandler Stephenson | 4–1 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 17:39 | SEA | Matty Beniers from Jared McCann | 5–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Dunn D | 18:40 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.01 | +0.80 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Melanson R | 11:14 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.02 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Wright C | 16:46 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.04 | +0.63 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 14:46 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.01 | +0.52 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ryan Winterton C | 10:23 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryker Evans D | 17:48 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 20:56 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 20:07 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 17:50 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Cale Fleury D | 20:41 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 14:04 | −0.21 | +0.06 | −0.30 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 15:32 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 20:00 | −0.26 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Meyers C | 13:51 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Berkly Catton C | 15:37 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 15:15 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.37 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 17:20 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 17:10 | −0.41 | −0.14 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 60:00 | +2.98 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Klapka R | 9:56 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.01 | +0.59 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 21:49 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:19 | +0.04 | +0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yan Kuznetsov D | 20:01 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Kirkland C | 10:17 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 15:22 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 13:57 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 13:49 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 10:06 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Coronato R | 15:52 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 17:15 | −0.13 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 23:15 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 18:44 | −0.21 | +0.09 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 16:38 | −0.25 | +0.09 | −0.57 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 21:21 | −0.31 | +0.13 | −0.48 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 16:39 | −0.35 | +0.03 | −0.41 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 16:40 | −0.39 | +0.04 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 16:20 | −0.63 | +0.04 | −0.67 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 77:16 | −0.70 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.