WSH beat ANA 7–4. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Justin Sourdif scored at 18:58 of the first, moving WSH’s win probability from 53% to 71%. Petr Mrazek allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:33 |  ANA | Chris Kreider from Olen Zellweger | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 15:56 | WSH | Justin Sourdif from Connor McMichael, Matt Roy | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P1 18:58 | WSH | Justin Sourdif from Connor McMichael | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 5:54 | WSH | Ryan Leonard from Justin Sourdif, Connor McMichael | 1–3 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 7:30 | WSH | Justin Sourdif from Ryan Leonard, Connor McMichael | 1–4 | 88% → 96% |
| P2 8:52 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Martin Fehérváry, John Carlson | 1–5 | 96% → 99% |
| P2 12:56 | ANA | Alex Killorn from Ross Johnston | 2–5 | 1% → 3% |
| P2 14:12 | ANA | Jacob Trouba from Troy Terry | 3–5 | 3% → 10% |
| P3 9:22 | ANA | Beckett Sennecke from Cutter Gauthier, Jackson LaCombe | 4–5 | 4% → 18% |
| P3 18:46 | WSH | John CarlsonEN from Nic Dowd, Martin Fehérváry | 4–6 | 95% → 100% |
| P3 19:18 | WSH | Alex OvechkinEN from Justin Sourdif | 4–7 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Trouba D | 18:48 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.10 | +0.83 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 14:49 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.09 | +0.76 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 18:25 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.01 | +0.42 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 12:07 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.07 | +0.37 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Moore D | 21:09 | +0.08 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 17:29 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 17:06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 22:50 | −0.06 | +0.15 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 12:53 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 19:40 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Johnston L | 10:10 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.06 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 10:51 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 16:54 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 17:29 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 17:41 | −0.34 | −0.10 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 12:25 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 17:27 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.13 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 18:20 | 1 | −0.52 | +0.04 | −0.57 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 32:25 | +0.17 |
| Petr Mrazek G | 60:00 | −2.75 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Sourdif C | 16:59 | 3 | 2 | +2.31 | −0.03 | +2.38 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Ryan Leonard R | 15:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.06 | +0.54 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 16:39 | 2 | +0.53 | −0.12 | +0.84 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 19:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.18 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nic Dowd C | 20:03 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 16:04 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 21:37 | 4 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Sonny Milano L | 7:32 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan McIlrath D | 9:32 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 20:58 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 18:45 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 22:22 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 11:07 | −0.11 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 10:07 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 22:16 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 20:13 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.20 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ethen Frank R | 16:18 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 16:48 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 60:00 | +0.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.