PIT beat CBJ 5–4 in overtime. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sidney Crosby scored at 2:22 of overtime, moving PIT’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:50 | PIT | Ville Koivunen from Ben Kindel, John St. Ivany | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 8:21 |  CBJ | Dmitri Voronkov from Denton Mateychuk | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 8:48 | CBJ | Mason Marchment from Adam Fantilli, Kirill Marchenko | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 18:38 | CBJ | Kirill Marchenko from Zach Werenski, Denton Mateychuk | 1–3 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 0:47 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Boone Jenner, Mathieu Olivier | 1–4 | 86% → 94% |
| P2 16:51 | PIT | Noel Acciari from Connor Dewar | 2–4 | 2% → 9% |
| P3 3:28 | PIT | Tommy NovakPP from Ben Kindel | 3–4 | 7% → 21% |
| P3 19:46 | PIT | Rickard RakellPP from Anthony Mantha, Sidney Crosby | 4–4 | 3% → 49% |
| OT 2:22 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Erik Karlsson, Egor Chinakhov | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ville Koivunen R | 11:28 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.03 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 12:43 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.08 | +0.58 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 13:29 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.11 | +0.73 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 24:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.15 | +0.34 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Blake Lizotte C | 13:54 | +0.30 | +0.08 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.39 | −0.03 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 24:14 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.24 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 12:38 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.17 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Shea D | 16:14 | +0.20 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John St. Ivany D | 15:06 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 18:43 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 13:18 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Kindel C | 14:01 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 26:29 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.10 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 23:17 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 22:46 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 18:06 | −0.30 | −0.09 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 15:23 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Brazeau R | 13:07 | −0.47 | −0.12 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arturs Silovs G | 69:51 | −0.83 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Werenski D | 25:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.10 | +0.81 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mason Marchment L | 16:00 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.07 | +0.54 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 16:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.02 | +0.55 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 10:07 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.17 | +0.80 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 10:50 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 21:14 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 11:51 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 14:37 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 11:38 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 20:49 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 22:08 | −0.18 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 25:01 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 10:42 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 12:35 | −0.31 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 14:13 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 19:14 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fantilli C | 17:37 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.14 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 28:44 | −0.45 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 62:22 | −0.72 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.